In the aftermath of every draft, the NFL is left with the lingering question: What immediate impact can rookies have on their franchise? Some will blast off from the start. Others crash.
Given the nature of the position and their importance to an entire franchise, the quarterbacks warrant the most attention. Even in a draft considered sparse for starting-caliber QBs, it's worth considering how this class might shake out, particularly in the short term.
For the first time since 2022 -- the Kenny Pickett year -- we could open Week 1 with zero rookie QBs under center. Before that, we have to go back to 2007 -- the JaMarcus Russell draft -- to find a year in which we didn't have a first-year quarterback start the season.
The reasons are mostly two-fold:
A) It's an impatient league; if you're on the roster, you're in the fire.
B) Teams drafting talented QBs tend to be those with glaring holes at the position.
It's even rarer for a No. 1 overall pick to ride the pine these days. The past six quarterbacks taken with the top pick -- Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray -- all started opening weekend. The last one who didn't was Baker Mayfieldin 2018 (his entrance came in Week 3). Before that, it was Jared Goff in 2016 who, after a wobbly preseason, was inactive Week 1 and didn't start until Week 11.
NFL.com senior news writer Kevin Patra examines whether 2026 No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza will join that list of Week 1 bystanders and the chances of any of his fellow QB draftmates starting to open the season.
Draft selection: No. 1 overall (first round)
Since the moment he hoisted the College Football Playoff trophy, Mendoza has been a presumptive Raider. It just took three months to make it official. The Heisman Trophy winner brings the type of leadership, gutty playmaking, and talent to be a franchise quarterback. That isn't in question.
However, everything new coach Klint Kubiak has said since he was hired indicates he’d prefer to let the rookie learn from the sideline, at least at first. The signing of Kirk Cousins makes that possible. This isn't a Marcus Mariota-Jayden Daniels situation. I've been critical of Cousins in the past, but he played solidly down the stretch last season and is an ideal fit for Kubiak's offense. He can provide a baseline and allow the rest of the offense to figure itself out without the added dimension of a rookie QB learning the offense.
Mendoza could force Kubiak to toss that all out the window with a splashy offseason and preseason. The pressure to play a No. 1 pick is real. But coming from an RPO system, it could take some adjustment before the Indiana product is fully ready.
There is no question that Mendoza is the future. When he sees the field could be determined by how the Raiders open the season. If they fall flat in the first few weeks, Vegas will be forced to see what the rookie can bring to the table. Come out of the gate hot, and he likely gets more study time before being thrust into action.
Starting prediction: Week 5, 2026
Draft selection: No. 13 overall (first round)
The Rams used the No. 13 overall pick to plan for the future. Sean McVay made it very clear it's still Matthew Stafford's team as long as he wants to play.
Given that he's coming off an MVP season, that goes without saying. Following McVay's poor-body-language presser after the Simpson selection, L.A. has ramped up the PR around the pick, insisting that the club believes in the rookie's talent and that Stafford can play as long as he wants. Both can be true. The history of QB succession plans is mixed, but if L.A. is right about its evaluation, it could set up the club for years. For now, the Rams need to navigate the narratives. We're still waiting to hear how Stafford feels about the pick.
Simpson's offseason work will be one to track, and his appearance in the preseason games will make them interesting. Given the 38-year-old Stafford's age and history of back issues, having a competent backup is key. One bad hit, and a rookie with 15 college starts could be in charge of a team with Super Bowl aspirations. However, we know Stafford battles through injuries and remains one of the top passers in the NFL. His arm isn't falling off anytime soon, and his brain remains elite. Barring catastrophe, Simpson will have a few study seasons in L.A.
Starting prediction: Spot-start in Week 18, 2026; full-time in 2028
Draft selection: No. 65 overall (third round)
The Cardinals' selection of Beck in the third round was an interesting addition to the QB room.
Jacoby Brissett is the presumed starter, but he is sitting out offseason workouts in search of a new contract that pays him as such. Gardner Minshew was brought in as a veteran backup. Now enters Beck, who has a trove of experience in college (43 starts) and has physical traits to be a starter.
Assuming Arizona figures things out with Brissett, Beck will be a developmental project. But nothing has been predictable in the desert this offseason. I'm not going to forecast that Beck becomes the first third-rounder to start Week 1 since Russell Wilson in 2012, but if the rebuilding Cards stumble through the season, he should see the field at some point. Arizona will at least want to see what he can do before heading into the 2027 draft.
Starting prediction: Week 13, 2026
Draft selection: No. 76 overall (third round)
The Steelers' selection of Allar adds more questions than answers in Pittsburgh. Do the Steelers believe there's a chance Aaron Rodgers won't, indeed, return for his age-42 season? Was all the positive talk about Will Howard this offseason hot air? Is Mason Rudolph a goner? We won't have any answers until we get a firm resolution on Rodgers -- who knows when that will be? Allar has physical traits, but never put it together at Penn State. Mike McCarthy could very well bring the best out of the passer. This feels like a developmental project more than a short-term answer, regardless of whether Rodgers plays in 2026.
Starting prediction: In the mix for 2027
Draft selection: No. 110 overall (fourth round)
Klubnik flashed upside in 2024, but had a rocky 2025, leading to landing on Day 3 of the draft. The Jets needed QB help behind Geno Smith, but Klubnik doesn’t figure to move the starting needle unless Smith suffers a catastrophic injury.
The reports that Russell Wilson met with New York about a potential backup role underscore that Klubnik isn't likely to be the primary backup. Even if it's not Wilson, New York could bring in another veteran or settle with Bailey Zappe in that role. With three first-round picks in 2027, the Jets are still in the market for a long-term franchise QB.
Starting prediction: Unlikely
Draft selection: No. 178 overall (fifth round)
Howie Roseman believes in fully staffing the QB room, including drafting a signal-caller whenever possible. So, it's not a massive surprise the Eagles used a fifth-round pick on the North Dakota State product.
Payton is an athlete with size, speed and upside to develop into a backup. Or could Philly view him as a Taysom Hill-type slash player? Last year’s sixth-rounder Kyle McCord didn't make the squad. We'll see if Payton makes the cut. With fan favorite Tanner McKee and the addition of Andy Dalton behind Jalen Hurts, someone is likely out.
Starting prediction: Unlikely
Draft selection: No. 182 overall (sixth round)
The Browns certainly have an array of options in the QB room. Is the saying "if you have four QBs, you have none"?
Green is a super athlete who could develop under Todd Monken. It also feels like we've seen this type of attempt to turn an athlete into a full-time QB with Terrelle Pryor, who ultimately became a wide receiver. While the Browns have legit questions with the QB pecking order, Green is a long shot. He could provide some gadget-play options for Monken, but then he'd have to dress on game day.
Starting prediction: Unlikely
Draft selection: No. 223 overall (seventh round)
Jayden Daniels is a star. Marcus Mariota proved he could step in adequately in a pinch. Kaliakmanis provides a developmental backup.
The Rutgers product threw for 3,124 yards with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2025. His development last season is positive, as he showed improved mechanics, but he still has significant areas to work on. Ideally, he works himself into a backup role when Mariota eventually moves on. Even that is an uphill climb for most seventh-rounders.
Starting prediction: Unlikely
Draft selection: No. 234 overall (seventh round)
With Tommy DeVito as the only other quarterback in the room behind star Drake Maye, it made sense for New England to add a developmental project for Josh McDaniels.
Morton has good size and processes well, but lacks some zip and needs to work on his mechanics. We'll see if he can push DeVito for the backup spot or play the emergency role in Year 1. It's a fine seventh-round dice roll for the Pats, but Morton figures to spend most of his time getting coffee for his MVP-candidate teammate.
Starting prediction: Unlikely
Draft selection: No. 249 overall (seventh round)
If someone had told you after the 2024 campaign that Nussmeier would fall all the way to the late seventh round and be the last QB taken, you probably would have scoffed. Such is football life.
The LSU product boasts an NFL-caliber arm and good feel for defenses. However, his struggles during an injury-plagued 2025 season and news of a cyst on his spine led to his tumble. Nussmeier did land a cushy gig. He gets to learn under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. With Justin Fields playing the stand-in role until the two-time AP NFL MVP is back from his knee injury, there is no pressure on the rookie to do more than learn the offense.
Nussmeier could eventually stop the QB churning behind Mahomes and become a stabilizing backup. Reid has a history of developing signal-callers and then trading them to QB-needy teams. So, while Nussmeier isn't going to be a long-term starter in K.C., barring something catastrophic happening with Mahomes (we have to put in the disclaimer), he has the talent to stick in the league.
Starting prediction: Not in K.C.
