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Average draft position: Round 11

I’m starting with a sleeper pick in Concepcion. The Browns rookie is available at a bargain-basement price in drafts amid an absolute avalanche of question marks: Who’s the QB1 in Cleveland? What’s the pecking order in the receiving corps? Is Concepcion or fellow rookie Denzel Boston the better bet for fantasy? We might not get answers to any of those questions until a few weeks (or more) into the season, but there’s still reason to be optimistic about Concepcion, who was drafted 24th overall in April.

In the 10 drafts held between 2016 and 2025, 18 wide receivers were selected in the 20s within the first round. Five of them topped 200 fantasy points as a rookie -- including Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr. -- and eight topped 150 fantasy points. If Concepcion does indeed emerge as the Browns' top receiver in 2026, he could end up with 100-plus targets and roughly 180 fantasy points, which would have been good for a top-30 finish among fantasy WRs last season. Few, if any, other wideouts going so late in drafts could be the WR1 on their own team or a fringe WR2 in fantasy, so even with all the unknowns, Concepcion’s low-risk, high-reward potential makes him a superb late-round value.

Average draft position: Round 5

In my fantasy running back values post, I discussed how good Chase Brown had been last season outside of three forgettable Jake Browning starts. If we do the same with Higgins -- limiting the sample to games started by Joe Burrow and Joe Flacco -- Higgins averaged 16 fantasy points per game, which would have been good for a fantasy WR9 finish. His full-season pace through 12 games with Burrow and Flacco was 72 catches for 1,041 yards and 13 touchdowns -- even better than his pace through 12 healthy games in 2024, when he was the WR6 in FPPG.

Higgins has missed 12 contests over the past three seasons, and Burrow has missed 16 games in that span, skewing Higgins’ numbers a bit. Injuries are a valid concern and likely play a large part in his WR20 ADP. But, typically, I prefer to take injury-prone narratives with a grain of salt and buy the dip instead. And this is a great opportunity to do so. If Higgins plays a full season with his Pro Bowl quarterback, his ceiling is somewhere in the top six to eight receivers. To get that kind of upside at a Round 5 discount is rare.

Average draft position: Rounds 1-2

Jefferson is one of the biggest names in football, so getting him as a value is a nearly incomprehensible feat. But after a massively disappointing season (by his standards) in which he totaled just 1,048 yards and two touchdowns in 17 games, we have a chance to land him at a great price this offseason. Last year, the mess that was J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer at quarterback ended up being a disaster for Jefferson, who set career lows in catch rate (59.6%) and yards per reception (12.5), turning his 141 targets into a WR21 finish. But with Kyler Murray and McCarthy’s ongoing QB competition set to elevate the passing game, I’m projecting far better efficiency for one of the league’s top wideouts in 2026.

I expect Murray to earn the starting job and put up a bounce-back season with Kevin O’Connell at the helm. Murray last linked up for 120-plus targets to a single wide receiver in 2020, when DeAndre Hopkins finished as the WR4 overall despite snagging just six touchdowns. That feels like a low-end expected outcome for Jefferson, with a ceiling at WR1 overall. He belongs closer to sixth overall than sixth among wide receivers, and he should be a smashing value at the end of the first or start of the second round.

Average draft position: Round 6

After consecutive seasons with fewer than 1,000 yards, a lot of fantasy managers are jumping ship on Moore. I am of the opinion his downturn has been more about his usage than some sort of veteran decline (he’s still only 29 years old). So, when the Bills made the trade in March to unite Moore with his former OC Joe Brady and 2024 MVP Josh Allen, my interest was piqued.

In 2020 the Bills traded for Stefon Diggs – who was in his late 20s at the time – and he finished as the fantasy WR3. That’s probably a little higher than Moore’s ceiling, but I don’t believe the Bills acquired him to be part of a leaderless rotation with Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. He should be the clear No. 1. I’m expecting him to post 100-plus targets and put together a WR2 floor for fantasy. At a WR26 price point in the middle rounds, that’s a steal and a half.

Average draft position: Rounds 10-11

Pearsall has missed 14 games through his first two seasons, taking a lot of the luster from his first-round draft stock. But none of his previous injuries particularly concern me entering 2026. Like Tee Higgins, this is another opportunity to buy the dip. When Pearsall has been on the field for the 49ers, he's logged a 67.7 percent catch rate and 13.9 yards per reception, making for a solid 9.4 yards per target. Unfortunately, Pearsall has only seen 99 targets over two seasons, but I'm expecting the ball to go his way more in 2026.

Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey will see decent volume, but all are aging veterans unlikely to demand 120-plus targets in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Pearsall has a realistic chance to top his career target number in 2026 alone and can produce WR3 or Flex numbers on limited opportunities thanks to his own and Brock Purdy 's efficiency (67.9 career completion percentage). Pearsall probably doesn't have WR1 upside, but he still returns value in the double-digit rounds. The third-year receiver is the perfect bench asset late in a draft, with the potential to become a weekly fantasy starter.

Average draft position: Rounds 5-6

The final two players here are hard for me to order as I absolutely love both in PPR formats. Ultimately, their rankings are based on where each will be drafted. Waddle has true WR1 upside as a middle-round draft pick despite finishing as the WR24 last season due to quarterback inconsistency. He saw 100 or more targets in four of his five seasons in Miami, topping 70 receptions and 1,000 yards three times, with his best fantasy performance (WR8) coming in 2022.

After being traded to Denver in the offseason, Waddle provides Sean Payton and Bo Nix a reliable, high-volume receiver to round out the offense. He offers the speed and run-after-catch ability that Courtland Sutton lacks. It might sound hyperbolic, but I'm getting get some Drew Brees-Michael Thomas vibes from Payton’s days in New Orleans. I’m not guaranteeing 149 catches from Waddle, but low-end WR2 feels like his floor in PPR leagues, and he has legitimate top-12 upside.

Average draft position: Round 11

Downs might be the best value in all of fantasy in 2026. Over the last three seasons, Downs tied then-teammate Michael Pittman Jr. in target rate (25.2%) and yards per route run (1.8) and outpaced Alec Pierce in both metrics in that span. Pittman's consistently high target volume kept a cap on Downs in fantasy. Now, with Pittman shipped to Pittsburgh and Pierce, who secured the bag in March, primarily used as a field-stretcher, the volume responsibility will fall on Downs and TE Tyler Warren. That could catapult Downs from running roughly 23 routes per game, as he did last season, to around 30, spiking his target totals.

Downs likely won't hit 15 yards per catch or score 10-plus TDs, but he could easily be the Colts' version of Wan'Dale Robinson, who caught 92 passes and finished as the WR14 in PPR leagues in 2025. Time will tell how Daniel Jones looks in his return from an Achilles injury, but Downs could benefit as a reliable slot option if Jones is less likely to extend plays with his legs. Ultimately, Downs has a safe floor, and I'd be confident drafting him two or three rounds ahead of his current ADP. I expect him to finish at least 10 spots ahead of his WR50 billing.