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Entering Week 16 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like "If win," "If lose" and "playoff leverage" click here.

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 16 unless otherwise noted below.

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• Five most consequential games of the week
• Division races
• Remaining strength of schedule rankings

NFL playoff picture entering Week 16

• Seemingly everything broke in the Broncos' favor in Week 15. Before Denver's game even kicked off, the Chiefs were officially eliminated from playoff contention, while the Patriots picked up loss No. 3. And by the time their bout with Green Bay wrapped up, the Broncos had moved one full game clear of New England atop the AFC leaderboard while becoming the first team in the conference to clinch a postseason berth. They can now lock up both the AFC West and the No. 1 seed this week:
  • Broncos clinch AFC West: Win vs. Jaguars + Chargers loss at Cowboys.
  • Broncos clinch No. 1 seed: Win vs. Jaguars + Chargers loss at Cowboys + Bills loss at Browns + Patriots loss at Ravens.
• And if all that wasn't enough, the Broncos might finally have convinced their detractors to quit griping about their strength of schedule (the second-easiest to date).
• Want to know what won't silence your skeptics? Becoming the "1" in "104-1." Prior to Sunday's collapse to Buffalo, the Patriots hadn't lost a home game in which they in 47 years (including playoffs). Fortunately for the Pats, they still have a "1" next to their name in the AFC East standings and are "1" win away from securing a spot in this year's tournament. But they've still only beaten one team that's currently above .500 this season ... and that lone victory, over the Bills, occurred in early October. Taking down the Ravens -- who might not have a winning record, but sure looked like contenders again after blanking the Bengals -- would help bolster the Patriots' championship bonafides ... even if it doesn't end up ultimately affecting their division credentials (more on that in the AFC East breakdown below).
• Similar to New England, Buffalo (at Browns), Jacksonville (at Broncos) and L.A. (at Cowboys) all have reasonable clinching scenarios this weekend. However, all three must win and have either the Texans or Colts lose to cement their spots. Considering Houston is hosting the 2-12 Raiders on Sunday, these three near locks will likely be rooting for the 49ers in Indianapolis on Monday night.
• ... Speaking of Indy, Philip Rivers and friends came this close to capturing their fairytale ending in Seattle. Alas, Seahawks kicker Jason Myers had his own . But the story of the 2025 Colts hasn't been written just yet -- at least not in ink. Because the Colts will still meet both the Jaguars and Texans before the season wraps, they maintain a surprising amount of influence over the final AFC playoff picture. Although it's possible for them to punch their ticket as a 10-7 team, their most probable paths require them to hit 11 wins. So Indy needs to do its part and get some help. But given the level of competition that contenders like L.A. and Jacksonville will face down the stretch, there's still space for the Colts to craft an epic conclusion.
• The Jaguars, of course, have no interest in aiding their rivals. They've got their own playoff scenarios to worry about. As meaningful as it'd be for Jacksonville to clinch in Week 16 -- especially considering where this franchise was just 12 months ago -- a postseason berth seems like the tip of the iceberg for a squad that still has the No. 1 seed within its sights (9%). By beating the Broncos on Sunday, the Jags would move within one game of the top spot, meaning one Denver slip-up -- at Kansas City in Week 17 or against the Chargers in the season finale -- would open the door for a potential Jaguars takeover. Of course, Jacksonville would likely have to win its final two games, too (at Colts, vs. Titans), as well as hope New England doesn't amass 14 wins. But if these three AFC contenders all finish 13-4 -- you can include the Bills and Chargers here, too, actually -- the Jaguars would secure the conference's top seed.
• Any combination of 13-win teams that includes L.A. but doesn't include the Jaguars would then favor the Bolts' bid for the playoff bye. The Chargers would have to win out in that scenario, including against Houston in Week 17 -- thus boosting Indy -- and they'd need some help, perhaps in the form of a Rivers-led Colts win over Jacksonville that same weekend. So while the Jags might not be keen to help Indy, the Bolts might -- especially if the Colts return the favor.
• Entering Week 16, all four of the AFC division leaders were different from last year's champions. If that holds, it would mark the first time we've seen complete turnover at the top of each group since the 2002-03 seasons. (H/T NFL Senior Researcher Dante Koplowitz-Fleming for that gem.)

Eliminated AFC Teams

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
11. Miami Dolphins (6-8)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)
13. New York Jets (3-11)
14. Cleveland Browns (3-11)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
16. Tennessee Titans (2-12)

• Not to short-change Jaguars-Broncos or Patriots-Ravens, which both have meaningful playoff implications, but Week 16 is all about the NFC lineup. We've got Rams-Seahawks on Thursday night, Packers-Bears on Saturday night and then Buccaneers-Panthers in the early Sunday window. And with the sixth-seeded 49ers facing the Colts on Monday night, we could see changes at Nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7 by next Tuesday.
• About the only thing not up for grabs this weekend is the No. 3 seed, which the Eagles appear likely to hold onto the rest of the way (78%). In fact, Philly can clinch the NFC East with a win at Washington on Saturday or a Cowboys loss to the Chargers on Sunday.
• How about a few more straightforward clinching scenarios:
  • Seahawks clinch berth with: Win vs. Rams OR Lions loss vs. Steelers
  • 49ers clinch berth with: Win at Colts OR Lions loss vs. Steelers
  • Bears clinch berth with: Win vs. Packers + Lions loss vs. Steelers
  • Packers clinch berth with: Win at Bears + Lions loss vs. Steelers
• You can probably gather by all the Detroit mentions in the scenarios above that Dan Campbell's crew could really use a win over Pittsburgh on Sunday. Another loss is projected to completely sink their playoff odds (19%).
• As for the only NFC team that's already secured its spot ... The Rams' grueling 2025 schedule finally lets up after their showdown in Seattle, with games against the Falcons and Cardinals rounding out L.A.'s regular season. So if Sean McVay's squad sweeps the season series with the Seahawks, they're well-positioned to maintain their spot atop the NFC West and NFC overall. Along the same the lines, though, should they lose Thursday night, their remaining slate is significantly softer than Seattle's (at Panthers, at 49ers), meaning the Rams could still find their way back to No. 1 in both the division and the conference after Week 18. ...
• ... but they'd also have to fend off the 49ers. If L.A. loses to Seattle, then both the 'Hawks and the 49ers would have control over the conference race, with either team able to clinch the No. 1 seed by winning out -- which includes their head-to-head matchup in Week 18. But one game at a time, right? So in the short term, a Niners win on Monday would move them up to No. 5 in the pecking order (barring a tie in Rams-Seahawks).
• The Bears (3%), Packers (.59%) and Eagles (.37%) could also theoretically secure the NFC's playoff bye, but they all need varying degrees of help. Of this cohort, Chicago's path is the easiest to follow. The Bears would need to win out -- including at San Francisco in Week 17 -- and have Seattle beat the Rams on TNF but then lose at least one of its final two games.
• The Buccaneers and Panthers have been bounced from wild-card contention, so their only path now is through the NFC South (more on that below). The Cowboys have also been knocked out of the wild-card race and are one loss or Eagles win away from full-on elimination.
• Despite the potential for major changes throughout NFC hierarchy, there exists a slim possibility (and I mean slim) that we see some permanence within the picture by Sunday night. According to Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, there's a non-zero chance that six of the seven NFC playoff spots will be off the table this weekend. Chicago, Green Bay, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle could all punch their postseason tickets in Week 16 under the following conditions:
  • Packers-Bears ends in a tie on Saturday
  • Eagles win at Commanders on Saturday OR Cowboys lose to Chargers on Sunday
  • Lions lose to Pittsburgh on Sunday

Eliminated NFC Teams

11. Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
12. Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (4-10)
14. Washington Commanders (4-10)
15. Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
16. New York Giants (2-12)

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Top 5 most consequential games

If you're seeking high drama, the games below are the ones to track, featuring the highest combined playoff leverages in Week 16 -- plus two matchups with division and seeding implications. Watch live, local and prime-time games on Â鶹¹ú²ú -- and, of course, catch every touchdown from every Sunday game on NFL RedZone (with Â鶹¹ú²ú Premium).

Two other Week 16 matchups to track

Who's most likely to win each division?

(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)

• We knew going into Bills-Patriots Round 2 that New England had some room for error -- which, fortunately for them, covers Sunday's historic defensive meltdown. As much as New England will surely want to quickly right its ship by winning this weekend at Baltimore, the outcome of that prime-time affair doesn't hold nearly as much weight as the Patriots' other two remaining games. At least not when it comes to the AFC East race. Sure, winning out is the most foolproof way to guarantee the Patriots finish first. But if they're going to falter again, it has to be against Baltimore, and not against the Jets or Dolphins -- otherwise, they risk losing control of their lead. Wins over New York and Miami to close out the campaign would guarantee the Patriots at least a 13-4 finish, with an insurmountable 5-1 division mark -- strong enough to hold off the Bills for good.

• If the Ravens play over the next two weeks like they did against Cincinnati on Sunday, then this race should come down to Week 18's head-to-head clash. If they don't, well, expect to see Pittsburgh's B-Team in the season finale.

• Two totally plausible Week 16 outcomes -- the Texans beat the Raiders and the Jaguars lose at Denver -- would pave Houston's path to the division lead. Should the Texans reach No. 1 by Sunday night, they'll have successfully ascended from 0-3 overall to the AFC's No. 3 seed over the span of 13 weeks. They won't have clinched anything yet, of course, but that's some Coach of the Year-type work, if you ask me.
• Despite the NGS model projecting the South to be a two-team race with three weeks to go, the Colts actually have a fairly direct path back to the top of the division standings. They still have head-to-head matchups with the Jags and Texans to come, with both of their division rivals facing at least one other formidable hurdle down the stretch, as well. Intrigued to see where this competition stands a week from today.

• Sean Payton hasn't wavered in his objectives for the 2025 Broncos, what he preached : Goal No. 1 is to win the AFC West. Well, he can cross that off his to-do list as soon as Sunday with a win versus the Jaguars and a Chargers loss at Dallas.
• But Denver, despite its league-best 12 victories, isn't insulated from potential pitfalls in its chase for a division banner. Should the Broncos stumble even once over the next two weeks, against either Jacksonville or at Kansas City, while L.A. extends its current winning streak, then Week 18's Chargers-Broncos bout could be far more consequential than a potentially meaningless battle between backups.

• Consecutive losses have put the Cowboys on the brink of elimination. Their season, and this race, officially comes to an end on Saturday with an Eagles victory at Washington. If the Commanders somehow upset Philly, then the Cowboys will have to do the same to the Chargers on Sunday. Otherwise, the NFC East will have its first back-to-back winner in more than 20 years (Eagles were the last to do it, from 2001 to '04).

• Bears-Packers has been a one-sided rivalry for more than a decade now, with Green Bay winning 20 of the last 23 meetings, including six in a row at Soldier Field. But none of those marks or previous matchups will matter if Chicago prevails on Saturday night. Although a Bears victory on its own wouldn't guarantee them the NFC North (or even a playoff spot), it would officially put Ben Johnson's group in win-and-in mode for the division. It would also put Detroit and Green Bay on notice; one single misstep by either team would knock that squad out of the running for the division.
• The Packers would return to the top of the division table with a win in Saturday's main event, though they'd lack the same Week 17 clinching power Chicago would've had, and they won't have Micah Parsons to help protect their lead.
• The Lions, meanwhile, can still go back-to-back in the division regardless of who wins Packers-Bears II. But it won't be easy. If the Bears win Saturday night, then the Lions have to win out (including at Chicago in Week 18), the Bears have to lose out and the Packers have to drop at least one of their final two games. If the Packers win, however, the Lions still have to win out, but would then need Green Bay to finish 0-2.
• However this race ultimately shakes out, the NGS model projects the winner as the conference's most likely No. 2 seed (79%) and the runner-up as the likeliest to land the No. 7 seed (82%).

• Somehow, the Bucs' 15-point fourth-quarter collapse to the already-eliminated Falcons last Thursday wasn't the most painful loss by an NFC South contender in Week 15. Nope, that dubious honor goes to Carolina, which blew a double-digit second-half lead to the previously three-win Saints -- and, with it, a golden chance to become the frontrunner in this race. The Panthers would've moved into first place had they won at New Orleans, maintaining a one-game advantage over the Bucs in overall and division records. In that scenario, the Panthers would've had to lose both games against Tampa to fall from No. 1. Instead, the Bucs have resumed control of this competition, needing now only to win their next two games -- at Carolina and Miami -- to capture the NFC South crown in Week 17.

• The heavyweight matchup we've been waiting weeks for is now just days away. I already went through most of the fallout scenarios in the NFC overview, but here's a quick refresher on where this race currently stands:
  • Even with a victory on Thursday, the Rams are only in a win-and-in division-clinching scenario in Week 17 if the 49ers also lose to the Colts this Monday.
  • Seattle moves into first place with a win, setting up a potential NFC West title bout in Week 18 at San Francisco.
  • The 49ers remain a step behind their counterparts in this competition, but they're still very much in contention -- as long as they keep winning. In the event the Niners beat the 'Hawks in Week 18, and all three teams finish 12-5 or 13-4, then the Niners' 5-1 divisional record and 3-1 record heads-up against Seattle and L.A. would net them the West.
• One final fun fact: The NFC West has never had three teams with 11 or more wins in its history. That could change as soon as Monday night.

Remaining strength of schedules for every NFL team

T-1) Colts: .690 -- vs. 49ers | vs. Jaguars | at Texans
T-1) 49ers: .690 -- at Colts | vs. Bears | vs. Seahawks
3) Ravens: .679 -- vs. Patriots | at Packers | at Steelers
4) Seahawks: .667 -- vs. Rams | at Panthers | vs. 49ers
T-5) Bears: .655 -- vs. Packers | at 49ers | vs. Lions
T-5) Chargers: .655 -- at Cowboys | vs. Texans | at Broncos
7) Broncos: .619 -- vs. Jaguars | at Chiefs | vs. Chargers
T-8) Panthers: .595 -- vs. Buccaneers | vs. Seahawks | at Buccaneers
T-8) Jets: .595 -- at Saints | vs. Patriots | at Bills
10) Commanders: .583 -- vs. Eagles | vs. Cowboys | at Eagles
11) Lions: .571 -- vs. Steelers | at Vikings | at Bears
12) Packers: .548 -- at Bears | vs. Ravens | at Vikings
T-13) Browns: .524 -- vs. Bills | vs. Steelers | at Bengals
T-13) Jaguars: .524 -- at Broncos | at Colts | vs. Titans
T-13) Dolphins: .524 -- vs. Bengals | vs. Buccaneers | at Patriots
T-16) Cardinals: .476 -- vs. Falcons | at Bengals | at Rams
T-16) Texans: .476 -- vs. Raiders | at Chargers | vs. Colts
T-16) Buccaneers: .476 -- at Panthers | at Dolphins | vs. Panthers
T-16) Titans: .476 -- vs. Chiefs | vs. Saints | at Jaguars
20) Vikings: .464 -- at Giants | vs. Lions | vs. Packers
21) Rams: .452 -- at Seahawks | at Falcons | vs. Cardinals
T-22) Falcons: .429 -- at Cardinals | vs. Rams | vs. Saints
T-22) Eagles: .429 -- at Commanders | at Bills | vs. Commanders
T-22) Steelers: .429 -- at Lions | at Browns | vs. Ravens
25) Raiders: .405 -- at Texans | vs. Giants | vs. Chiefs
T-26) Cowboys: .381 -- vs. Chargers | at Commanders | at Giants
T-26) Chiefs: .381 -- at Titans | vs. Broncos | at Raiders
T-26) Patriots: .381 -- at Ravens | at Jets | vs. Dolphins
29) Bills: .357 -- at Browns | vs. Eagles | vs. Jets
30) Giants: .345 -- vs. Vikings | at Raiders | vs. Cowboys
31) Bengals: .286 -- at Dolphins | vs. Cardinals | vs. Browns
32) Saints: .238 -- vs. Jets | at Titans | at Falcons

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