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Season Predictions

NFL predictions for 2024 season: Picks to win MVP, Offensive/Defensive Rookie of the Year

With the 2024 NFL season just around the corner, NFL.com's analysts predict who they think will win some of the league's most prestigious individual awards, specifically:

NOTE: All odds -- listed alongside each player's name -- are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook & Casino and were current as of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Aug. 28.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

Rank
1
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs · QB · +475

(16 votes: Abdoo, Band, Battista, Bergman, Bhanpuri, Blair, Grant, Jones-Drew, Kownack, Mariucci, Okada, Parr, Patra, Reuter, Ross, Shook.)


T-2) Josh Allen (+900) | 4 votes: Baca, Edholm, Florio, Rosenthal.

T-2) C.J. Stroud (+850) | 4 votes: Chadiha, Filice, Gonzales, Zierlein.

T-4) Jalen Hurts (+1400) | 2 votes: Rank, Walker.

T-4) Brock Purdy (+1500) | 1 vote: Magdziuk.

T-4) Trevor Lawrence (+3000) | 1 vote: Cersosimo.


Most Valuable Player notes:

  • Three players have won the last six MVP awards: Lamar Jackson (2019, 2023), Patrick Mahomes (2018, 2022) and Aaron Rodgers (2020, 2021).
  • Lamar Jackson is the only QB with multiple MVP awards not to appear in a Super Bowl. He currently has +1800 odds to take home this year's trophy, while the Ravens have the second-best odds to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LIX.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Tyreek Hill
Miami Dolphins · WR · +700

(11 votes: Abdoo, Baca, Band, Battista, Chadiha, Gonzales, Grant, Jones-Drew, Okada, Rank, Reuter.)


2) Bijan Robinson (+1800) | 5 votes: Cersosimo, Kownack, Magdziuk, Patra, Rosenthal.

T-3) Ja'Marr Chase (+1200) | 3 votes: Blair, Florio, Zierlein.

T-3) Christian McCaffrey (+800) | 3 votes: Mariucci, Shook, Walker.

T-5) A.J. Brown (+4000) | 1 vote: Filice.

T-5) Derrick Henry (+5000) | 1 vote: Ross.

T-5) Jalen Hurts (+5500) | 1 vote: Edholm.

T-5) CeeDee Lamb (+1000) | 1 vote: Parr.

T-5) Kyler Murray (+9500) | 1 vote: Bhanpuri.

T-5) Garrett Wilson (+2800) | 1 vote: Bergman.


Offensive Player of the Year notes:

  • Over the past 30 years, a wide receiver has been named Offensive Player of the Year just three times, with the remaining 27 recipients comprised of running backs (17) and quarterbacks (10). All three of the hardware-winning wideouts earned the award in the previous five seasons (Michael Thomas in 2019, Cooper Kupp in 2021 and Justin Jefferson in 2022).
  • Christian McCaffrey could become just the third player in NFL history to go back-to-back as Offensive Player of the Year, joining fellow running backs Marshall Faulk (1999-2001) and Earl Campbell (1978-1980), who both three-peated.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Micah Parsons
Dallas Cowboys · Edge · +550

(8 votes: Abdoo, Battista, Okada, Patra, Reuter, Rosenthal, Shook, Zierlein.)


T-2) T.J. Watt (+575) | 7 votes: Bhanpuri, Chadiha, Florio, Jones-Drew, Magdziuk, Mariucci, Ross.

T-2) Maxx Crosby (+700) | 7 votes: Band, Cersosimo, Edholm, Filice, Gonzales, Kownack, Parr.

T-4) Myles Garrett (+800) | 2 votes: Bergman, Grant.

T-4) Aidan Hutchinson (+1100) | 2 votes: Blair, Walker.

T-6) Sauce Gardner (+6000) | 1 vote: Rank.

T-6) Rashan Gary (+5000) | 1 vote: Baca.


Defensive Player of the Year notes:

  • Nine of the 10 most recent Defensive Player of the Year winners were pass rushers, with cornerback Stephon Gilmore (2019) being the outlier. Gilmore is one of just six defensive backs to take home the prize in the past 30 years (Troy Polamalu in 2010, Charles Woodson in 2009, Bob Sanders in 2007, Ed Reed in 2004 and Deion Sanders in 1994).
  • The season sack leader has been named DPOY four times over the past 10 years, while only once during that span did the league leader in interceptions win the award (Gilmore).


OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Caleb Williams
Chicago Bears · QB · +140

(17 votes: Abdoo, Baca, Band, Battista, Blair, Chadiha, Filice, Florio, Grant, Kownack, Parr, Patra, Rank, Reuter, Ross, Walker, Zierlein.)


2) Marvin Harrison Jr. (+700) | 6 votes: Bergman, Bhanpuri, Gonzales, Magdziuk, Okada, Shook.

3) Jayden Daniels (+500) | 2 votes: Cersosimo, Edholm.

T-4) Brock Bowers (+5000) | 1 vote: Jones-Drew.

T-4) Malik Nabers (+1500) | 1 vote: Rosenthal.

T-4) Bo Nix (+950) | 1 vote: Mariucci.


Offensive Rookie of the Year notes:

  • Since 2000, 18 QBs have been selected No. 1 overall in the draft, with the latest being Caleb Williams in April. Of the 17 who preceded Williams, just three (Sam Bradford in 2010, Cam Newton in 2011 and Kyler Murray in 2019) went on to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
  • By winning OROY, Williams could become the second player in Bears history (joining Anthony Thomas in 2001) and first Chicago quarterback to earn the honor. Including Defensive Rookie of the Year winners and the three Bears players who were named Rookie of the Year before the award was split into offensive and defensive categories (Mike Ditka in 1961, Ron Bull in 1962 and Gale Sayers in 1965), eight Chicago players have won rookie of the year awards -- tied with Detroit for the most in league history.
  • If Brock Bowers were to defy the odds and be recognized as the league’s top offensive rookie, he’d follow Ditka as the second tight end to ever receive the honor.


DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Laiatu Latu
Indianapolis Colts · Edge · +400

(12 votes: Band, Bhanpuri, Blair, Edholm, Filice, Grant, Jones-Drew, Magdziuk, Okada, Patra, Rosenthal, Walker.)


T-2) Dallas Turner (+450) | 5 votes: Baca, Cersosimo, Chadiha, Florio, Kownack.

T-2) Jared Verse (+950) | 5 votes: Battista, Gonzales, Mariucci, Ross, Zierlein.

4) Byron Murphy II (+1100) | 3 votes: Abdoo, Parr, Reuter.

5) Chop Robinson (+1600) | 2 votes: Rank, Shook.

6) Kamari Lassiter (+6600) | 1 vote: Bergman.


Defensive Rookie of the Year notes:

  • From 2006 to 2012, five of the seven Defensive Rookie of the Year winners were off-ball linebackers. In the 11 years since, only one off-ball linebacker (Shaq Leonard) has won the award, with pass rushers (both interior and edge players) earning the honor seven times.
  • Six franchises -- the Bengals, Buccaneers, Eagles, Jaguars, Seahawks and Vikings -- still have not had a player win DROY. All six teams invested at least one top-60 pick on a defender in the 2024 NFL Draft, with Minnesota (Dallas Turner), Philadelphia (Quinyon Mitchell) and Seattle (Byron Murphy II) each spending a first-round selection on defense.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Joe Burrow
Cincinnati Bengals · QB · +275

(11 votes: Band, Cersosimo, Chadiha, Edholm, Filice, Florio, Kownack, Patra, Reuter, Ross, Shook.)


2) Aaron Rodgers (+130) | 10 votes: Baca, Battista, Bergman, Bhanpuri, Blair, Jones-Drew, Mariucci, Okada, Parr, Zierlein.

3) Kirk Cousins (+525) | 3 votes: Gonzales, Grant, Magdziuk.

4) Anthony Richardson (+675) | 2 votes: Abdoo, Walker.

T-5) Nick Chubb (+1100) | 1 vote: Rank.

T-5) Kyler Murray (+2200) | 1 vote: Rosenthal.


Comeback Player of the Year notes:

  • The leading vote-getter for Comeback Player of the Year, Joe Burrow, previously won the award in 2021, when he bounced back from a season-ending injury as a rookie to lead the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance as a sophomore. If Burrow were to hear his name called at NFL Honors again after this season, he and Chad Pennington would be the only two-time winners of the award.
  • Quarterbacks have dominated CPOY of late, representing 12 of the last 16 winners. In fact, 2023 winner Joe Flacco extended the position’s run to six straight years -- the second time that has happened since the award returned nearly three decades ago (2008-2013, 2018-2023).


COACH OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
demeco
DeMeco Ryans
Houston Texans · +1400

(6 votes: Band, Bhanpuri, Chadiha, Filice, Mariucci, Zierlein.)


T-2) Jim Harbaugh (+1000) | 4 votes: Baca, Edholm, Reuter, Ross.

T-2) Raheem Morris (+1500) | 4 votes: Cersosimo, Kownack, Okada, Shook.

T-4) Matt Eberflus (+900) | 3 votes: Blair, Gonzales, Rank.

T-4) Matt LaFleur (+1500) | 3 votes: Abdoo, Bergman, Patra.

T-4) Shane Steichen (+1600) | 3 votes: Florio, Magdziuk, Walker.

7) Mike Macdonald (+1100) | 2 votes: Parr, Rosenthal.

T-8) Dan Campbell (+2200) | 1 vote: Battista.

T-8) Mike McDaniel (+2500) | 1 vote: Grant.

T-8) Sean McVay (+2200) | 1 vote: Jones-Drew.


Coach of the Year notes:

  • Since 2011, more than half of the Coach of the Year winners (seven of 13) have taken home the award within their first two years at the helm. That bodes well for the three leading vote-getters in this category, including the analysts’ top pick, DeMeco Ryans, who has the chance to become the first COTY in Texans history.
  • Jim Harbaugh, who earned COTY honors in his first year with the 49ers (2011), has the opportunity to become the first coach to win the award in his inaugural season with two different franchises. He’d also become the first Chargers head coach to earn the title since Marty Schottenheimer won the award 20 years ago.
  • Since 2015, just two coaches have followed up their Coach of the Year wins by leading their team to the playoffs the next season (Sean McVay and John Harbaugh). Will reigning COTY winner Kevin Stefanski, who also took home the award in 2020, become the third?

EACH ANALYST'S BALLOT

AnalystMVPOPOYDPOYOROYDROYComebackCoach
Keegan AbdooPatrick MahomesTyreek HillMicah ParsonsCaleb WilliamsByron Murphy IIAnthony RichardsonMatt LaFleur
Michael BacaJosh AllenTyreek HillRashan GaryCaleb WilliamsDallas TurnerAaron RodgersJim Harbaugh
Mike BandPatrick MahomesTyreek HillMaxx CrosbyCaleb WilliamsLaiatu LatuJoe BurrowDeMeco Ryans
Judy BattistaPatrick MahomesTyreek HillMicah ParsonsCaleb WilliamsJared VerseAaron RodgersDan Campbell
Jeremy BergmanPatrick MahomesGarrett WilsonMyles GarrettMarvin Harrison Jr.Kamari LassiterAaron RodgersMatt LaFleur
Ali BhanpuriPatrick MahomesKyler MurrayT.J. WattMarvin Harrison Jr.Laiatu LatuAaron RodgersDeMeco Ryans
Tom BlairPatrick MahomesJa'Marr ChaseAidan HutchinsonCaleb WilliamsLaiatu LatuAaron RodgersMatt Eberflus
Brooke CersosimoTrevor LawrenceBijan RobinsonMaxx CrosbyJayden DanielsDallas TurnerJoe BurrowRaheem Morris
Jeffri ChadihaC.J. StroudTyreek HillT.J. WattCaleb WilliamsDallas TurnerJoe BurrowDeMeco Ryans
Eric EdholmJosh AllenJalen HurtsMaxx CrosbyJayden DanielsLaiatu LatuJoe BurrowJim Harbaugh
Gennaro FiliceC.J. StroudA.J. BrownMaxx CrosbyCaleb WilliamsLaiatu LatuJoe BurrowDeMeco Ryans
Michael FlorioJosh AllenJa'Marr ChaseT.J. WattCaleb WilliamsDallas TurnerJoe BurrowShane Steichen
Christian GonzalesC.J. StroudTyreek HillMaxx CrosbyMarvin Harrison Jr.Jared VerseKirk CousinsMatt Eberflus
Marcas GrantPatrick MahomesTyreek HillMyles GarrettCaleb WilliamsLaiatu LatuKirk CousinsMike McDaniel
Maurice Jones-DrewPatrick MahomesTyreek HillT.J. WattBrock BowersLaiatu LatuAaron RodgersSean McVay
Bobby KownackPatrick MahomesBijan RobinsonMaxx CrosbyCaleb WilliamsDallas TurnerJoe BurrowRaheem Morris
Michelle MagdziukBrock PurdyBijan RobinsonT.J. WattMarvin Harrison Jr.Laiatu LatuKirk CousinsShane Steichen
Steve MariucciPatrick MahomesChristian McCaffreyT.J. WattBo NixJared VerseAaron RodgersDeMeco Ryans
Matt OkadaPatrick MahomesTyreek HillMicah ParsonsMarvin Harrison Jr.Laiatu LatuAaron RodgersRaheem Morris
Dan ParrPatrick MahomesCeeDee LambMaxx CrosbyCaleb WilliamsByron Murphy IIAaron RodgersMike Macdonald
Kevin PatraPatrick MahomesBijan RobinsonMicah ParsonsCaleb WilliamsLaiatu LatuJoe BurrowMatt LaFleur
Adam RankJalen HurtsTyreek HillSauce GardnerCaleb WilliamsChop RobinsonNick ChubbMatt Eberflus
Chad ReuterPatrick MahomesTyreek HillMicah ParsonsCaleb WilliamsByron Murphy IIJoe BurrowJim Harbaugh
Gregg RosenthalJosh AllenBijan RobinsonMicah ParsonsMalik NabersLaiatu LatuKyler MurrayMike Macdonald
Marc RossPatrick MahomesDerrick HenryT.J. WattCaleb WilliamsJared VerseJoe BurrowJim Harbaugh
Nick ShookPatrick MahomesChristian McCaffreyMicah ParsonsMarvin Harrison Jr.Chop RobinsonJoe BurrowRaheem Morris
Brendan WalkerJalen HurtsChristian McCaffreyAidan HutchinsonCaleb WilliamsLaiatu LatuAnthony RichardsonShane Steichen
Lance ZierleinC.J. StroudJa'Marr ChaseMicah ParsonsCaleb WilliamsJared VerseAaron RodgersDeMeco Ryans
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