As we begin to wade deeper into the waters of optimism season -- the offseason period following the draft and preceding training camp -- players across the NFL are preparing to reach the best shape of their lives and play on the most talented teams of their careers. Soon, many will show up with massive chips on their shoulders. It's as much a season of tropes as it is a time of sunny outlooks.
Not all are comfortably cruising into summer with their whole lives ahead of them, though. A collection of players are feeling increased pressure as they approach the new campaign because they're headed toward a potential crossroads.
Yes, it's also make-or-break season. Here are 10 (well, technically 11) players whose 2026 efforts could change the course of their respective careers -- for better or worse.
Coleman said it best himself on Tuesday: "For me, it's make or break."
He's right about that. The No. 33 overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft has yet to break 1,000 career receiving yards, hasn't risen to WR1 (or even WR2) status in Buffalo and fell entirely out of the game plan via multiple healthy scratches in the 2025 season, a campaign in which the Bills desperately needed more production from their receiving corps. Things got worse in January, when Bills owner Terry Pegula seemed to blame fired coach Sean McDermott for Buffalo's decision to draft Coleman, as if the owner had already chalked up the second-round pick's tenure as a failure.
Bills leadership quickly pivoted into damage control, pledging faith and confidence in Coleman's potential for 2026 while praising his work ethic. Coleman heard the chatter, too, acknowledging it Tuesday.
"I ain't scared of s---," Coleman said. "I know what they saying, I hear it. I just don't care, you know what I'm saying?
"My job is to come out here, put my cleats on and strap them up and prove my work ethic."
He'll need to lean on that work ethic and hope it produces better results, because 67 catches, 960 yards and eight touchdowns in 26 regular-season games simply doesn't cut it. He needs to take a step or two forward in the pivotal third year of his career. Buffalo is a franchise that has harbored Super Bowl ambitions for the last half decade and doesn't have time to be patient while attempting to keep its title window open. If Coleman is going to come anywhere close to meeting the expectations that accompanied his selection atop Round 2, he'll need to do it in 2026 or else face the possibility of moving elsewhere in 2027.
Roughly 12 miles southwest of Bank of America Stadium stands Carowinds, a Six Flags amusement park that straddles the border of North and South Carolina and features a thrilling roller coaster known as Fury 325. The famous giga coaster includes a 320-foot initial drop, as well as plenty of twists and undulation, beneath a pedestrian bridge midway through the ride and turned 11 years old in March.
Young's career has largely resembled the journey of Fury 325. It began with the kind of great expectations that accompany a 325-foot peak, has included plenty of twists and turns and bottomed out when he was benched in favor of Andy Dalton in 2024. Much like the first ride on Carowinds' signature coaster, what lies ahead remains to be seen. Young's 2024 season saw him return to the starting lineup, closed on a positive note and spilled over into a 2025 campaign that produced new career-high marks in completion percentage (63.6), passing yards (3,011) and passing touchdowns (23). Still, last season's effort was also largely inconsistent. Young put together a career-best performance in a Week 11 overtime win over the NFC South rival Falcons, completing 31 of 45 passes for 448 yards and three touchdowns, and delivering a glimpse of the potential that made him the No. 1 overall pick in 2023. One week later, he threw two interceptions and finished with 169 passing yards in a 20-9 loss to San Francisco.
2026 is pivotal for Young because it will inform the Panthers on how to handle their former top pick going forward. He's still on his rookie deal and had his fifth-year option picked up for 2027, buying Carolina time to decide whether he's the long-term answer at quarterback. If he thrives in his third season spent with coach Dave Canales this fall, he'll likely head to the negotiating table to meet with a Panthers regime eager to sign him to a multi-year extension. If he is again inconsistent, Carolina could A) take a long look at a strong 2027 QB class and/or B) let Young play out the remainder of his rookie deal before deciding whether to offer another deal.
I'm taking a bit of writer's liberty here by lumping Murray and McCarthy into one spot because 2026 is pivotal for both of them.
Murray is just a couple of months removed from being unceremoniously released by the team that made him the No. 1 overall pick in 2019 before ultimately soft-benching him in 2025 for ... Jacoby Brissett. McCarthy, meanwhile, flopped so hard in his first season as Minnesota's starter that the Vikings quickly (and eagerly) moved to sign Murray as soon as he became available.
Minnesota's leaders will tout the benefits of competition when marketing this QB situation entering 2026, but make no mistake: These are two quarterbacks fighting for their futures as starters in the NFL.
Murray has struggled with injuries and inconsistency in recent years and couldn't survive the second coaching change of his career in Arizona. He also never got on the same page with former No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. in their season and a half spent together, a reality that proved damning to his chances of staying in Arizona.
McCarthy's first season as the Vikings' top dog was fraught with inconsistent mechanics and performance, and remarkably inconsistent availability from week to week due to injury. Head coach Kevin O'Connell -- a former NFL quarterback who owns a reputation for pairing well with signal-callers (see: Sam Darnold's renaissance season in 2024) -- couldn't make much progress with McCarthy, whose lack of consistency and participation doomed a team that still managed to win nine games despite owning zero stability under center.
In one season, the rosy outlook attached to McCarthy soured. Thus, Murray arrives with a chance to rehabilitate his reputation in a fashion the Vikings hope will mirror Darnold's rebirth. If Kyler succeeds, he'll steal McCarthy's job. If he struggles, McCarthy will have another (and perhaps his last) chance to command the top spot on the depth chart. In theory, one of the two will win out -- or the Vikings will slide back into the QB market next spring.
When the clock struck zero on Stroud's worst performance of his career in Houston's Divisional Round loss at New England, his fantastic, award-winning rookie campaign felt like it happened eons ago.
This is now Stroud's reality. Instead of being considered one of the young faces of the NFL's future under center, the 24-year-old's long-term plans are largely on hold -- for now. The Texans have done nothing but express confidence in their franchise quarterback, but in the last two years, Stroud has struggled to consistently justify their faith in him. The 2024 season could be chalked up to Stroud being forced to play behind a porous line, but the same excuse wasn't nearly as reasonable in 2025. Add in his four-pick meltdown in Foxborough to end yet another Texans campaign in the Divisional Round, and Houston can't help but wonder if the club is stuck in neutral.
It's up to Stroud to lift the Texans -- and himself -- out of purgatory. With Year 4 up next, the time is now to prove he can be more than a once-promising rookie who never took the next step. The circumstances surrounding him aren't the best; Tank Dell's latest significant injury cost him all of 2025 and he's still on an uncertain timeline to return. But ultimately, this job will fall on Stroud's shoulders.
It's time for a positive spin.
Pickens' 2025 season was his first in Dallas and his best of his career. Ninety-three catches, 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns were good enough to earn the franchise tag, but the Cowboys have already stated they're not interested in negotiating a long-term deal in 2026. Essentially, Jerry Jones' front office has delivered a clear message to Pickens: Prove last year wasn't a fluke.
The good news is that Pickens has the opportunity to show the football world that he can do this consistently. He'll play 2026 on the tag, which pays him $27.3 million, the average of the top five receiver salaries in the NFL. It's excellent money, even if it doesn't come with multi-year security -- but Pickens can earn that by producing another fantastic season.
Coming out of Georgia, Pickens was generally considered a first-round talent with emotional/character concerns that saw him slide to Pittsburgh in the second round. (Granted, an injury-abbreviated final college season didn't help his draft stock.) The Steelers eventually ran out of patience with him, shipping him to Dallas after acquiring DK Metcalf. If Pickens can replicate the success he enjoyed in 2025, Cowboys fans will be begging their team to retain him.
After two underwhelming seasons in Arizona, Harrison is entering Year 3 facing the prospect of needing to learn another new quarterback. That's not exactly encouraging news for a former No. 4 overall pick who hasn't come close to meeting the expectations that followed him from Ohio State.
There's a bright side to this, though: Harrison is now playing for an offensive-minded head coach in Mike LaFleur.
The challenge for Harrison will surface when the Cardinals start to organize their signal-caller depth chart. Will it be Jacoby Brissett, the veteran who seemed to form a better rapport with Harrison in 2025 than Kyler Murray ever did. Could it be journeyman Gardner Minshew? Might rookie Carson Beck throw a wrench into the process?
The relative uncertainty at the position could limit how quickly Harrison builds chemistry with a quarterback in this new system. But the 23-year-old isn't suddenly devoid of talent. After two years spent under defensive-minded coach Jonathan Gannon, the difference might simply come down to who is designing the offense. Harrison will need to capitalize before long, though, or else the dreaded B-word -- 鈥渂ust鈥� -- might bubble up to the surface in 2026.
Yes, I'm including the recipient of the worst contract (and subject of the worst trade) in NFL history. Why? Well, somehow, Watson found his ninth life and has a strong chance of beginning 2026 as Cleveland's starting quarterback.
There's no guarantee Watson is worth his salt in the NFL anymore. The last time he took the field in a real game, he was one of the worst signal-callers in the league. An Achilles tear prematurely ended his 2024 season, and he missed the entire 2025 campaign after re-rupturing the tendon. Meanwhile, the Browns continued adding arms to the quarterback room, hoping to find a different solution to the franchise's eternal problem spot.
But suddenly, a healthy Watson is once again a leading topic of discussion and . New head coach Todd Monken seems eager to see what Watson has left in the tank at 30 years old, and even if the Browns won't explicitly admit it, they're clearly laying the groundwork to establish Watson as their QB1 by steadily feeding positive sentiments into the news cycle.
Watson has one year left on his five-year, $230 million deal, a fully guaranteed contract that has produced virtually zero return on investment. If he performs as poorly as he did the last time he was on an NFL field, it's possible his career ends after 2026. But the allure of the unknown is already leading Cleveland down an exploratory path, and if Watson is interested in extending his career beyond this upcoming season, he'll need to capitalize while the opportunity still exists. Just don't expect any guarantees, because none of us know how this is going to play out.
Those who treated draft evaluators' projections like gospel believed Thibodeaux was on the trade block as soon as Roger Goodell called Arvell Reese's name in the Giants' slot at No. 5 overall. A month later, that same group might be feeling foolish.
Reese isn't being boxed into a pure edge-rusher role in New York, at least not now, which is the best way to maximize his raw, athletic skill set as he makes the leap to the NFL. It's also the best outcome for Thibodeaux, a former No. 5 overall pick himself, but one whose existence has been overshadowed by the Giants' continued investment in their front seven in recent years.
Playing on the fifth-year option, Thibodeaux must compete for snaps with Abdul Carter, the third overall pick in last year's draft. It's all about capitalizing on whatever opportunities arise, even if it's only to boost his trade value. Whether his future exists in New York or elsewhere, the time is now for Thibodeaux to establish a positive reputation, especially after he posted a career-low sack total (2.5) in 2025.
The Bengals' divorce from Trey Hendrickson was as predictable as they come, which helps explain why Cincinnati has spent so much draft capital on edge rushers in recent seasons. After taking Murphy at No. 28 overall in 2023, the Bengals spent another first-round pick on Shemar Stewart in 2025. And then, a month after Hendrickson signed with the division rival Ravens, Cincy snagged Cashius Howell with the team's first pick (No. 41 overall) in April's draft. Those efforts have set up a battle royale of sorts for the top edge-rushing job opposite free-agent addition Boye Mafe.
This is where Murphy needs to strike. The former Clemson standout didn't see any starts until the 2025 season, racking up 10 of them in 17 games played. He logged a career-best 52 tackles (six for loss) and 5.5 sacks, offering a glimpse of what could be moving forward.
Murphy's Year 3 jump in production wasn't enough to convince the Bengals to pick up his fifth-year option, making for a natural prove-it season in a contract year. As it stands now, his future probably isn't in Cincinnati, unless his rate of compensation fits nicely into the Bengals' bigger financial picture. But he will sign a second contract somewhere, and now is the time to earn that money.
In case you haven't noticed, things are already getting interesting behind center in Atlanta. The Falcons' front office equipped new coach Kevin Stefanski with two southpaw options in Penix and former Dolphin Tua Tagovailoa. With Penix still working his way back from a season-ending knee injury -- a process that seems to be on track, if not ahead of schedule, judging by Penix's limited participation in OTAs this week -- there's a legitimate chance Tagovailoa begins the season as Atlanta's starter. If it's a temporary measure, that's fine, but Penix also wouldn't be the first QB to get Wally Pipped in the NFL. It's a plausible outcome in today's minimally patient league, especially with a new regime now in charge.
This situation is difficult because, no matter how hard he works, Penix might not have the full freedom to begin 2026 at full speed. When he does take the field, though, the pressure will be on. As a former top-10 pick whose brief success as a rookie largely pushed Kirk Cousins out of Atlanta, Penix will be expected to prove he's continuing to develop, something he struggled to demonstrate in his second season before it ended abruptly with his third ACL tear. Hopefully, he'll have most of the season to try to make it happen. Otherwise, questions regarding his future will only grow.
