The free agency frenzy has been a whirlwind, but as the dust settles on an eventful opening stanza, certain moves stand out.
After poring over all of the fits and finances, I've compiled my list of the smartest and riskiest signings and trades in the first wave of activity. Obviously, none of this is guaranteed, but at first glance, these are my top takeaways.
SMART: Kansas City Chiefs sign Kenneth Walker III for three years, up to $45 million
Over the last two seasons, Chiefs running backs have ranked fourth-worst in rushing yards per game (75.3), second-worst in yards per carry (3.7) and second-worst in explosive run rate (8.8%). That won't be the case anymore -- not with the reigning Super Bowl MVP joining Patrick Mahomes in a fresh offense run by returning coordinator Eric Bieniemy. And you can throw on highlights from Walker's championship-winning performance to quickly assess what Kansas City is getting. He finished 2025 with 42 explosive runs (including the playoffs) and a 14.7% explosive run rate, both second-best among running backs (minimum 150 carries). Walker topped 1,100 scrimmage yards in three of his first four NFL seasons, despite splitting work with Zach Charbonnet over the last three.
As of his signing on Wednesday, Walker's $14.3 million per year ranked fourth-most at the position, , and mere inches above what Breece Hall will receive on the franchise tag. While that might sound like a lot, it's completely reasonable for one of the best running backs in the league, filling a major hole for an offense desperate to regain its explosiveness.
RISKY: Miami Dolphins sign Malik Willis for three years, $67.5 million
On the one hand, the Dolphins landed Gregg Rosenthal's No. 1 overall free agent for just $22.5 million per year, which . On the other hand, they're still going to have $99.2 million of dead money locked up in Tua Tagovailoa and have now committed tens of millions more over the next three years to an unproven player who has enjoyed his greatest NFL success to date as a spot starter. This was a widely projected landing spot for Willis, considering the connection between the former Packers backup and Miami's new head coach, ex-Green Bay DC Jeff Hafley. But Hafley isn't necessarily the key here -- it'll be offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who needs to build a productive attack around a very unique starting QB.
Among the 72 QBs with at least five starts since 2022, Willis ranks dead last in passing yards per game as a starter (141), while he ranks fourth-best in rushing yards per game as a starter (45). That disparity is what made him the first name in my February file on boom-or-bust free agents. If Miami can unlock Willis as the next dual-threat star, this will be a massive steal. But if he ends up walking the Justin Fields road, this will be a big miss and the team will be looking for a QB again in a year or two.
SMART: Buffalo Bills trade for DJ Moore
The Bills have needed a legitimate downfield receiver for years, and GM Brandon Beane made it happen by trading the team's second-round pick for Moore (also getting a fifth-rounder in return). Moore has never made a Pro Bowl, despite logging four seasons with 1,100-plus receiving yards and missing just two games across eight years ... but he's also been stuck on one of the wildest quarterback carousels in recent memory. Caleb Williams has accounted for 1,633 of Moore's career receiving yards; after that, you've got Sam Darnold (1,174), Cam Newton (1,135), Justin Fields (1,109), Kyle Allen (1,081), Teddy Bridgewater (1,009) and a few others.
It's not a stretch to say Josh Allen will be the best passer Moore's ever played with, and a major beneficiary of Moore's skill set -- his 792 deep routes are the fourth-most in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Allen's passing-yardage totals have dipped since the departure of Stefon Diggs in April of 2024; that figure should jump back up with this move, which could help Buffalo (finally) crest that pesky hill on its road to the Super Bowl.
RISKY: Las Vegas Raiders sign Tyler Linderbaum for three years, $81 million
To be clear, Linderbaum is one of the best centers in the NFL. He earned a top-six overall Pro Football Focus grade at the position in every one of his four seasons in Baltimore and was Gregg Rosenthal's No. 3 overall free agent entering the week. Assuming the Raiders draft Indiana's Fernando Mendoza first overall, Linderbaum will be an excellent addition in front of both the rookie QB and RB Ashton Jeanty, last year's No. 6 overall pick.
But.
The three-year, $81 million deal Las Vegas coughed up for Linderbaum is absolutely mind-boggling. That's $27 million per year -- 50 percent higher than the previous highest-paid center, Creed Humphrey, and more than all but two left tackles. Linderbaum's deal is worth $9 million more total over three years than Humphrey's is worth over four years. It's the biggest market reset at a position in recent memory. And yes, the Raiders had a ton of cap space to work with this offseason ... but they also had a whole lot of holes to fill. If they can efficiently construct the balance of a competitive roster around their future QB, the Linderbaum signing should pay dividends. It's just a financially astonishing move.
SMART: Los Angeles Rams trade for (and extend) Trent McDuffie
My "highest priority fix" for the Rams late last month was to "shore up defensive inconsistency," specifically by landing a major upgrade at cornerback. They found one in classic Les Snead fashion: by shipping off picks in a blockbuster trade. Los Angeles sent the 29th overall pick, a fifth-rounder and a sixth-rounder in this year's draft, plus a third in 2027, to Kansas City for McDuffie, a 25-year-old star -- and then the Rams made him the highest-paid cornerback in the league with a four-year, $124 million contract extension.
It's a major investment, no question, but Snead and Co. typically turn these kinds of moves into major success (like, you know, a Lombardi Trophy). Over the last three seasons, McDuffie's 87.7 Pro Football Focus coverage grade is the second-highest mark by a cornerback, behind only Sauce Gardner. McDuffie is also a unique cover man. Over the last three years, McDuffie's one of just two CBs with 25-plus passes defensed and 10-plus QB hits, and one of just five CBs with an 80-plus PFF grade in both coverage and run defense. He's the model of consistency and a perfect fit for the prominent hole in the Rams defense.
RISKY: Indianapolis Colts re-sign Alec Pierce for four years, $114 million
Clearly, the Colts like Alec Pierce quite a lot. Rather than letting him walk in free agency -- as arguably the top wide receiver on the market -- they signed the 25-year-old to a megadeal and traded Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers, ostensibly clearing the way for Pierce to be their WR1. Considering he was Gregg Rosenthal's No. 5 overall free agent, this should be a slam dunk, right?
Here's my concern. Pierce hit new career highs in targets, receptions and receiving yards in 2025 -- 84, 47 and 1,003, respectively -- but those aren't WR1 numbers. He's an excellent deep-ball specialist, leading qualified receivers in yards per reception in each of the last two seasons, and his big-play ability has resulted in 13 touchdowns over that span. Solid. But can he match up with an opponent's top corner? Rack up triple-digit targets? Maintain his efficiency with legitimate volume? In terms of pay, he's now a top-15 wide receiver, right behind Tee Higgins … but Higgins had arguably proven quite a bit more when he signed his similar deal last March.
SMART: Atlanta Falcons sign Tua Tagovailoa for one year, veteran's minimum
In terms of investment versus potential return, this might be the smartest move of the entire offseason. With Miami releasing Tagovailoa, and carrying all of his dead money, the Falcons were able to land the veteran starter for the minimum. And it couldn't make more sense. Michael Penix Jr., the eighth overall pick in 2024, suffered a torn ACL in November and will likely be recovering right up to (or through) the start of the season. Moreover, he has yet to show signs of true franchise quarterback upside, with a 4-8 record, 59.6 percent completion rate, 12 TDs and six INTs across two seasons. Having another (left-handed) starting-caliber QB gives Penix time to heal -- and potentially, time to develop a little further before starting again.
As for Tagovailoa, while he's undoubtedly endured some struggles, he has led the league in completion rate (2024), passing yards (2023) and touchdown rate (2022) in various seasons, sports an NFL-best 69.9 completion percentage since 2023 and has a winning record (44-32) as a starter. He has a specific skill set -- as more of a quick-hitting game manager than an MVP-level game changer -- but that could thrive in Kevin Stefanski's offense in Atlanta. For nearly no risk, the Falcons have landed solid QB competition, a potential part-time starter in 2026 ... and maybe even a longer-term answer, if things go well.
RISKY: Carolina Panthers sign Jaelan Phillips for four years, $120 million
The grade you give the Jaelan Phillips deal depends pretty heavily on two factors. First, the way you value pressures versus sacks. And second, the weight you place on a spotty injury history. Let's take them one at a time.
Since entering the league in 2021, Phillips sports a 15.0 percent pressure rate, per Next Gen Stats, seventh among players with 1,400+ pass-rush snaps over that span. However, his sack rate of just 1.9% ranks 28th in that same sample. He logged a career-high 8.5 sacks in his rookie year and hasn't recorded more than seven in a season since. Phillips causes havoc behind the line and will undoubtedly improve Carolina's pass rush in the aggregate, but he has yet to show his worth as a closer or prove himself to be a true "sack artist."
As for the injury history, Phillips missed 22 games across 2023 and '24 with a torn Achilles and torn ACL, respectively. He returned to play a full season in 2025, but two season-ending injuries of that magnitude are not easily overlooked, especially for a player who had serious health issues in college.
Adding to all this, Phillips received a massive payday -- $120 million overall and $30 million per year, both higher figures than four-time Pro Bowler Trey Hendrickson received from the Ravens. (Admittedly, Hendrickson is five years older than Phillips.) If Phillips takes that jump into elite pass-rusher territory, the reward will justify the risk. If he doesn't, or if he misses significant time, reward could turn to regret very quickly.
SMART: Cincinnati Bengals sign Bryan Cook for three years, $40.25 million
Among the several free agency moves that directly solved the "priority fix" I spotlighted in my February column, this one's probably my favorite. Not only did the Bengals directly "address the safety debacle" -- following my suggestion with a player I listed -- but they landed Cook on an extremely reasonable deal that comes in at just at the position.
Cook was PFF's fourth-highest-graded safety in 2025 and one of just two to earn a grade of 80+ in both run defense and coverage (along with Xavier McKinney). Among 70 safeties with 50+ tackle attempts, Cook's 94.3% tackling efficiency ranked seventh, according to Next Gen Stats -- a metric in which Cincy ranked sixth-worst last year. He was Gregg Rosenthal's No. 25 overall free agent and No. 1 safety on the market entering March and should do wonders to shore up the back end of the Bengals' defense.
