By the time it happened, the Seattle Seahawks' win in Super Bowl LX was hardly shocking.
They'd spent the previous few months stomping all over the NFL, rolling to 14 regular-season victories and a point differential of +191. They'd just outlasted one of the year's other juggernauts, the Los Angeles Rams, in a titanic NFC title match. As a conclusion to the narrative arc of 2025, their relatively comfy triumph over the Patriots made plenty of sense.
Today, the idea that Sam Darnold could win a Lombardi Trophy with Seattle is entirely uncontroversial. But that wasn't always the case. Like, say, around this time a year ago. Back in May of 2025, such a statement would have met with a response along these lines:
You're telling me you think SAM DARNOLD could win A LOMBARDI TROPHY with SEATTLE?!?!?
Sure, the Seahawks were pointed in the right direction coming out of the 2025 NFL Draft. John Schneider had just added a couple of premium rookies (Grey Zabel, Nick Emmanwori) and the market's top quarterback (Darnold) to a roster that won 10 games in Mike Macdonald's first year as head coach. It was plausible to envision the solid defense rounding further into shape, maybe to the point that the 'Hawks could compete in the NFC West, especially if Darnold's surprising 2024 career revival took.
But one still had to have plenty of faith to predict a no-doubt title run for Seattle, because if anything, a step back -- with Darnold far from an established QB -- seemed as likely a possibility as a leap forward. Unless you were a true believer (or, I guess, ), you probably weren't ready to buy all the way in. Which brings me to this question:
Which teams can pull off a similarly sneaky transformation in 2026? That is, who will be this season's version of the Seahawks, evolving from "yeah, I could see it" contender to "OK, but maybe not quite like that" power player?
Of course, we won't really know the answer until somewhere around Week 8, after we've watched teams evolve and grow on the field -- this is one of the chief pleasures in all sports. But so is spinning up fantastical offseason scenarios. So let's dive into the five teams below, who I think have a chance to follow the Seahawks' 2025 trajectory.
THE RULES
To be eligible, teams had to meet two basic criteria:
- I would not do a double-take if they made the playoffs.
- I would do a double-take, or maybe even a spit-take, if they won 14-plus games and coasted to victory in Super Bowl LXI.
I also looked for common threads with the Seahawks' build-up to glory, evaluating each team by the following factors:
- Their starting QB's "Sam Darnold Score," a 1-10 scale representing how much the QB has to prove himself.
- Whether the team has a unit as dominant as Seattle's "Dark Side" defense.
- The presence of a Seahawks-ian player on the roster, which is to say, a savvy veteran addition, a breakout-bound development project or a smartly drafted potential rookie contributor.
C.J. Stroud's Sam Darnold Score: 6/10. As the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud has less to prove than Darnold ever did. But there are still Questions About His Future. Stroud's numbers have slipped the last two seasons, and the last time we saw him, he delivered one of the worst performances of his career in a Divisional Round shellacking by the Patriots. Is he a franchise QB, or will his next deal come with a bet-hedging early out for the team?
Do they have a Dark Side? Do they ever. Houston's defense was one of the most dominant units in the NFL last year, ranking first in EPA per play and fifth in yards per play allowed (4.8), and while things change from one season to the next, most of the elements behind that success remain in place. This is exactly the kind of group that -- like Seattle's own neo-Legion of Boom did in 2025 -- can be the engine behind a stem-to-stern run of dominance.
Who is their Seahawks-ian building block? Ed Ingram, OG. Like Seattle's trade for Ernest Jones IV two years ago, it might have been easy to dismiss Houston's last year as something of a flier as it continued trying to solve its unsolvable O-line issues. Ingram finished the season with a sacks-allowed rate of 0.9%, per Next Gen Stats, halving the 2024 mark of his predecessor, Shaq Mason (1.9%), and proceeded to earn an extension this year. If Stroud is going to develop in the right direction, Ingram (along with rookie center Keylan Rutledge and veteran running back David Montgomery) will play a key role.
Bottom line: It might seem a bit like cheating to include a team that already won 12 games last season. But this franchise has never finished higher than the third seed in the AFC or advanced beyond the Divisional Round of the playoffs. If Stroud and the offense can up their game and the defense stays elite, the Texans could truly separate themselves from the typical AFC South fray and roll into the postseason with some real momentum.
Kyler Murray's Sam Darnold Score: 8/10. The low points of Murray's NFL tenure so far are just about even with the pre-Vikings high points of Darnold's, but there is one tantalizing common factor in these two players' trajectories: Kevin O'Connell, QB-renovator extraordinaire. Unlike Darnold heading into his 2024 renewal under KOC, Murray has already played well enough to validate his selection with a top draft pick. But he's never had a head coach with as much NFL success as O'Connell (.632 career winning percentage), and he hasn't worked with an in-his-prime receiver even close to Justin Jefferson's level since DeAndre Hopkins in 2020. Murray has to stay healthy and make the most of this chance, but the circumstances around him might be as favorable as they've ever been.
Do they have a Dark Side? Brian Flores' famously formidable defense was as effective as ever in 2025, ranking seventh in EPA per play (-0.14) and points allowed per game (19.6) and third in yards allowed per play (4.7), but the offense could not keep up, with a season-long point differential of plus-11 matching perfectly with Minnesota's 9-8 finish. Like the Texans, the Vikings have a defense that could drive true dominance, with just a little more support from the offense.
Who is their Seahawks-ian building block? Dallas Turner, Edge. Drafted 20th overall in 2023, Jaxon Smith-Njigba spent the first two years of his career sharing targets with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Last offseason, Seattle moved on from the veterans -- and JSN became a star, piling up a league-best 1,793 receiving yards. Turner's development has been a slow burn in Minnesota, where he started out low in the pass-rushing pecking order as a rookie in 2024. Last season, his sack total ticked up to a healthy, but still modest, eight. Now he's got three years of experience in Flores' scheme under his belt and to a difference-making breakout, with Andrew Van Ginkel turning 31 in July and Jonathan Greenard in Philly.
Bottom line: Like Seattle, Minnesota has been fitfully competitive over the past few years. The Vikings have plenty of talent, and I have confidence in the coaching regime. If they were also working with the same level of front-office stability that the Seahawks have enjoyed under Schneider, I'd feel better about giving them the top spot. Whoever takes over might knock the job out of the park, but the late-January firing of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah brings some uncertainty to the team-building portion of the equation.
Justin Herbert's Sam Darnold Score: 1/10. Herbert has had plenty of NFL success and is deep into a hefty second contract, but there's still a tiny glimmer of Darnold visible in his playoff record (zero wins, three losses, 54.7 percent completion rate, 2:4 TD-to-INT ratio, 64.7 passer rating). Sure, he's had to deal with things outside of his control, including the dissolution of his offensive line over the course of the 2025 season, and it's tough to take too much away from a three-game sample. But it would be nice for Herbert to have proof that he is more than a top-10 regular-season QB. Giving this team its first postseason victory since Philip Rivers beat the Ravens in January of 2019 would be a good step.
Do they have a Dark Side? It's the defense, with a caveat: Jesse Minter is gone, having left the group he led to the eighth-best mark in defensive EPA per play last season to coach the Ravens. That said, his replacement, Chris O'Leary, has most of the same pieces to work with. The Bolts won seven of their final 10 regular-season games last season while holding all but one of those opponents to 20 points or less, a trend that continued in the Wild Card Round, when they limited the Pats to 16 points -- and mustered just three of their own.
Who is their Seahawks-ian building block? Akheem Mesidor, Edge. As my colleague Chad Reuter pointed out, Daniel Jeremiah's 26th-ranked prospect is in exactly the right spot to make a key contribution as a rookie, augmenting the Tuli Tuipulotu- and Khalil Mack-led pass rush.
Bottom line: Thankfully, we don't seem to hear too much these days about the Chargers "Chargering" themselves into self-inflicted losses. And it's tough to ding them too much for the way last season turned out, given how difficult it is to play football without a working offensive line. Herbert and Jim Harbaugh have pushed this team to 11 wins in back-to-back seasons. That's meaningful. It would be even better if they could vault more firmly into the upper realm of conference contenders, where the franchise hasn't truly been in nearly two decades.
Caleb Williams' Sam Darnold Score: 3/10. Williams is on much steadier ground now than he was coming off a somewhat spotty rookie year. For his sophomore effort, Williams won 11 games while throwing for 3,942 yards and compiling a 27:7 TD-to-INT ratio. That's the kind of season you want to see out of a No. 1 overall pick. The trick will be performing like that again, hopefully many more times, until he's 15 years into a Hall of Fame track. Then Bears fans will be able to breathe a little.
Do they have a Dark Side? In Johnson's first year at the helm, Chicago averaged 5.7 yards per play and ranked ninth in EPA per play (0.03) on offense. That might not look like much compared with what Johnson put up in his three years running the show in Detroit (the Lions averaged 5.9 yards per play or better in 2022-24, while finishing fourth, fourth and second in EPA per play, respectively), but it was downright revolutionary for the Bears, who last topped 5.5 yards per play in 2016, under the three-headed QB monster of Jay Cutler, Matt Barkley and Brian Hoyer. The offensive line is a concern, but if Johnson can keep things cooking in Year 2, this could be an attack that pushes Chicago into the upper reaches of the NFC standings again.
Who is their Seahawks-ian building block? Montez Sweat, Edge. Sweat might be even more of a Williams-type acquisition than Williams was. When the 'Hawks traded for Williams in 2023, they were about to begin a 4-6 slide that knocked them out of the playoffs. When the Bears acquired Sweat from Washington in October of 2023, they were 2-6 and still far from relevance -- or, frankly, having an obvious pressing need for a costly (in terms of draft compensation and, eventually, an extension) mid-career pass rusher. But Sweat made an immediate difference, and when the stakes got suddenly higher last season, he was already in position to give the Bears a 10-sack effort. He's a great example of a groundwork-laying piece who comes aboard before the final vision comes into focus.
Bottom line: Are the Bears too good already to make this list? The results from 2025 say yes, but the previous 12 years say no. Between Lovie Smith's last season (2012) and Johnson's first, Chicago went 76-110, with two winless playoff appearances. There is enough youth in the mix, and the defense is worrisome enough, that the Bears might end up being a popular candidate to regress in 2026. But if the defense tightens up and Johnson's offense helps the team win double-digit games in back-to-back seasons, it won't be crazy to think back to the Super Bowl ceiling of the last Chicago team to pull that off, back in 2006.
Joe Burrow's Sam Darnold Score: -100/10. When it comes to realizing individual potential, the first six years of Burrow's career were basically the polar opposite of Darnold's. Health has been a persistent challenge, but the most pressing question at this point is whether the team around Burrow can reach the minimum performance level to let him drive another Super Bowl run.
Do they have a Dark Side? Cincinnati's offense is led by three players (Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) who can, at any point, qualify as one of the best in the league at their position. The defense surrendered more yards (6,475) and points (492) than most offenses could compensate for, let alone one that was without Burrow for nine games. If that D can move closer to league-average performance, Burrow and Co. could really put something together.
Who is their Seahawks-ian building block? Dexter Lawrence, DT. This is a bit of a projection, given that Lawrence was only acquired by Cincinnati in early April, but, like Seattle's trade for Williams, this is less of a no-doubt home run than a reasonable swing on an established veteran in need of a fresh start. If Lawrence successfully transforms the defense, he could help change the complexion of the AFC.
Bottom line: The Bengals reached the Super Bowl in Burrow's second season and the AFC title game the year after that. They should have been in the SB picture on a regular basis over the past half-decade. Instead, injuries and defensive malpractice have consigned them to the NFL's middle class. With a little more help from the defense, Burrow can push them to the front of the pack.
