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This is as close to implausible as I’m willing to get, and that’s not a knock on Robinson.

It would take historic production and a surprisingly successful season for the Falcons to make Robinson a leading MVP contender, but I can see the path for him if I squint. Robinson was a first-team All-Pro after leading the league in scrimmage yards last season (2,298), but his team wasn’t very good (8-9) and he didn’t even lead Atlanta in rushing touchdowns. That title went to backup Tyler Allgeier, who departed in free agency, so perhaps there will be more goal-line opportunities for Robinson in the first year of the Kevin Stefanski era. 

There’s a decent chance the arm strength-challenged Tua Tagovailoa will be starting at QB for the Falcons this season, which means Robinson might face stacked boxes more often than he did last season, when he ran 42 times against them (28th most). If -- and it’s a massive if -- no QBs emerge as the clear-cut MVP favorites by mid-December, maybe a door opens for Robinson to pull off a rare feat. He would still need a record-breaking season that fuels Atlanta’s first trip to the playoffs in nearly a decade, but he did come within 212 yards of setting the single-season scrimmage yards record in 2025, and there's no dominant team in the NFC South. So, Robinson gets the nod over electric Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs for the one spot on this list devoted to a non-QB, since Gibbs and his teammate, Jared Goff, might split votes if the Lions drop the hammer on the rest of the league in 2026.

We saw what Kevin O’Connell did with a reclamation project two years ago, when he flipped the career arc of Sam Darnold by helping him become a Pro Bowl QB (and earn a few points in the MVP voting) in his lone season with Minnesota. Now I’m fascinated to see what the QB guru can do with Murray, who’s looking for the O’Connell bump after cratering in Arizona. He still has to beat out 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy for the starting job, but if Murray’s able to tap back into the dual-threat ability that earned him consecutive Pro Bowl trips a few years ago (2020-2021), it shouldn’t be much of a competition.

While it might not pop off every corner of the page, the supporting cast in Minnesota looks strong on paper, led by one of the league’s top players in WR Justin Jefferson. If Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings stay healthy, that could be a tough trio of pass catchers for defenses to match up against. The offensive line is solid, anchored by LT Christian Darrisaw. They’re not the most dynamic at tight end (T.J. Hockenson) or running back (Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason), but all in all, it’s a respectable group.

Murray has demonstrated a propensity for making defenses look silly. He was doing it , albeit too infrequently. If O’Connell helps him unlock peak form, the Vikings could be surprise contenders in the NFC North, and the heat from the QB’s MVP campaign might turn snowmen into puddles across Minneapolis next winter.

It’s easy to forget, given how the Buccaneers face-planted in the second half of last season, but at midseason, Mayfield was a leading MVP candidate. Tampa Bay was thriving, dropping 38 points in an October win over the future Super Bowl-champion Seahawks in Seattle. Injuries -- and Mayfield was playing through a lot of them, according to now former Bucs great Lavonte David -- swallowed the team whole down the stretch.

He’ll be trying to bounce back without his go-to guy, future Hall of Famer Mike Evans, who departed for the 49ers in free agency, so it won’t be easy. If Mayfield plays at an elite level despite relying on a young receiving corps led by 2025 first-round pick Emeka Egbuka, it’s not hard to imagine the MVP chatter returning. Also, he’ll be working with his fourth different offensive coordinator in his fourth season with the Bucs, but at least there’s some familiarity with new OC Zac Robinson, who was the Rams’ QB coach during Mayfield’s brief stint with the team in 2022.

The NFC South, while improved, is still very winnable for Tampa Bay, and Mayfield is only a year removed from throwing 41 TD passes. Better injury luck, which seems likely, could put him in the thick of the race once again. He might even have extra motivation from playing for a new contract.

Philly’s offense went out with a whimper in the second half of last season, with Hurts posting a net negative on dropbacks in Expected Points Added (-11.1) during his final nine games of 2025, including the Eagles' playoff loss, per Next Gen Stats. The vibes were even worse than those numbers. Given the scrutiny attached to playing quarterback for the Eagles, Hurts will either enter next offseason with questions about his future with the team or be riding high after returning to something resembling the form that made him the MVP runner-up in 2022 and the Super Bowl LIX MVP. The latter of the two scenarios seems well within reach.

Hurts is getting something of a fresh start in 2026, with former NFL QB Sean Mannion replacing Kevin Patullo as offensive coordinator after Patullo’s rough lone season as the play-caller. A.J. Brown was shipped to the Patriots after he and Hurts , according to Brown. The receiving corps has a much different look, with Hollywood Brown, Dontayvion Wicks and first-round pick Makai Lemon arriving this offseason. Second-round selection Eli Stowers gives the offense a freak athlete at tight end. The offensive line remains one of the league’s best. I don’t know if we’ll see peak Saquon Barkley again, but he still ranked 10th in rushing yards (1,140) even while taking a big step back with the rest of the offense last season.

The ingredients are there for Hurts to roar back on a contending team. He’ll have to be much better than the version of him we saw for much of last season, though, in an offense that will have him lining up under center more often.

The Darnold’s going to turn into a pumpkin narrative was on life support heading into last season’s playoffs, and it probably died for good when he hoisted the Lombardi Trophy on the night of Feb. 8. The former draft bust has now earned Pro Bowl nods in consecutive seasons while leading his teams to a record of 31-7 (.816) in that span (including playoffs). He had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 5:0 during Seattle’s title run, with nary a fumble lost in the playoffs.

All that’s left for him to prove is he’s the MVP -- more than the beneficiary of Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s rare ability, a dominant defense and potent running game, even though such back-handed characterizations of Darnold’s contributions in 2025 were myopic anyway. He might be asked to carry an even greater chunk of the offensive load, with Kenneth Walker III departing in free agency and Zach Charbonnet working his way back from an ACL tear suffered in January’s Divisional Round win over the 49ers. If he proves up to the challenge and the Seahawks are contending for a second straight crown in the league’s best division, it would only make sense if serious MVP buzz followed.

What a difference a year makes. Last summer, the oddsmakers had Daniels much closer to the top of the board at MVP. The vibes were off the charts coming off Washington’s surprise run to the NFC Championship Game, with Daniels winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

After an injury-plagued 2025 season, everyone’s waiting to see how he will get off the mat. Washington’s running a new offense coordinated by 30-year-old former QB David Blough, who will ask Daniels to take more snaps from under center. I won’t blame the third-year passer if the burden feels heavy. After the Commanders were very aggressive in adding support for him last offseason -- trading for Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel -- this year’s moves were far less splashy. At the moment, third-round pick Antonio Williams is the most notable addition to the receiving corps, which is badly in need of more juice opposite Terry McLaurin.

I worry that the first three games -- at Eagles, at Cowboys, vs. Seahawks -- could derail Daniels and Co. before we reach October, but he’s surprised us before. When healthy, he has the potential to be one of the most electric playmakers in the game. If the Commanders are playoff contenders come December, it will be because Daniels is playing out of his mind.

I’m a bit surprised there’s not more MVP love for Goff right now. Yes, he plays in one of the league’s toughest divisions and the Lions’ rough second half of the 2025 season is still fresh in our minds, but he’s also the only quarterback to rank among the top five in EPA in each of the last four seasons. He finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2024 and has made the Pro Bowl in three of the past four seasons.

His game isn’t built on sizzling highlights, but he’s in a rare category when it comes to consistently providing top-tier production. HIs MVP campaign will go as the Lions go, and with a very manageable schedule, I like Detroit’s chances to bounce back.

Nothing will be more critical in determining Goff and the Lions’ success than the play of the new-look offensive line, with All-Pro Penei Sewell flipping from right to left tackle, free-agent signee Cade Mays stepping in at center and first-round pick Blake Miller likely to replace Sewell on the right side. Just take a look at how Goff has fared when pressured versus when he has time to throw since joining the Lions in 2022, per Next Gen Stats:

• vs. pressure: 51.8% completion rate, 7.0 yards per attempt, 24 TDs, 22 INTs, 72.6 rating.
• vs. no pressure: 75.3% completion rate, 8.3 yards per attempt, 106 TDs, 17 INTs, 117 rating.

Goff has the weaponry to make things happen. With clean pockets, he should rack up big numbers connecting with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. In fact, with David Montgomery now in Houston, Gibbs could be in for a career year that ultimately diminishes Goff’s MVP standing, but this is still a quarterback’s award.

One could argue Lawrence is not a true sleeper for the award, since he finished fifth in the MVP voting last season. The reason he qualifies is because the oddsmakers don’t seem bullish on his chances after watching what has transpired in Jacksonville this offseason.

I’m presuming the lack of buzz stems from the Jaguars’ inactivity in free agency and perceptions that the team might have overachieved in Year 1 under Liam Coen. The biggest additions on offense were RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (career high of 500 rushing yards) and second-round TE Nate Boerkircher, who made 38 catches in his five college seasons. Also, Lawrence waved goodbye to RB Travis Etienne, his teammate since their days at Clemson, and while it’s unclear what exactly Travis Hunter’s role will entail as he returns from injury, general manager James Gladstone has said the 2025 first-rounder will be spending more time on defense in 2026. There are still quality pieces around the QB -- and a bounce-back year by Brian Thomas Jr. would make them a lot more interesting -- but it’s going to take development from Lawrence and some skill-position players to put him squarely in the MVP conversation.

He’s coming off his best season, and it’s entirely possible a second year in Coen’s system will bring out an even better version in a division Jacksonville has proven it can win, which is why I’m ranking him highly on this list.

Unlike every other player on this list, Purdy gets to enjoy the stability of playing in the same offensive system for the fifth consecutive season, with one of the best in the business, Kyle Shanahan, at the helm. In fact, aside from Purdy and Trevor Lawrence, everyone else on the list has a new offensive coordinator this year.

Continuity alone does not make an MVP candidate, though. Purdy knows that, having finished fourth in the MVP voting in his first season as the team’s full-time starter (2023). What’s different this year is the 49ers made moves to give Purdy what could be the best receiving corps he’s ever had. Signing future Hall of Famer Mike Evans was the blockbuster acquisition, but San Francisco also brought in a former 1,000-yard receiver in Christian Kirk and clearly has high hopes for second-round pick De’Zhaun Stribling, who has the size/speed combination to make those who believe he was drafted too early (No. 33 overall) eat their words. If 2024 first-round pick Ricky Pearsall breaks out, Shanahan could have an embarrassment of riches.

Purdy still has one of the league’s better offensive lines blocking for him, and maybe his most talented pass-catching weapon of all in RB Christian McCaffrey. It’s worth monitoring how TE George Kittle fares as he makes his way back from an Achilles tear, but backup Jake Tonges performed well when he received opportunities last season. 

Now, navigating a schedule that includes two international trips and seven games against teams that made the playoffs last year will not be easy. Most people probably have the 49ers as the third-best team in their division, with the reigning-champion Seahawks and Super Bowl favorite Rams in the NFC West. If Purdy can lead his team through that gauntlet and come out the other end as the QB1 of a leading contender, he should have a powerful narrative MVP voters can embrace. The guy knows how to win games, with a 30-15 record as a starter in his four NFL seasons, and I can’t wait to see what he can do after injuries limited him to nine games last year.