With training camps underway, we're getting our first real chance to see how this year's rookie class measures up against pro competition. However, until the real games begin, all we can do is project how NFL newbies will fare in 2026, so that's what I'm doing here. Below you'll find my top 11 candidates to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, but before we dive in, here are four trends to note:
- No safety has won the award since Mark Carrier in 1990.
- No defensive tackle has won the award since Aaron Donald in 2014.
- Five of the last seven winners were edge rushers, including hybrid edge/linebacker Micah Parsons in 2021.
- Thirty-eight of the last 45 DROY winners (84%) were top-20 draft picks.
NOTE: The odds below, provided by DraftKings, are current as of 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 30.
After observing Rodriguez's rise throughout the pre-draft process -- thanks in part to a stellar showing at the NFL Scouting Combine -- I thought about ranking him higher on this list. For now, he's blocked from the starting lineup, with the newly paid Jordyn Brooks and green-dot wearer Tyrel Dodson ahead of him on the depth chart. Until that changes, it's hard to see the second-rounder's DROY chances taking flight. Teams might be building leads and pounding the ball on the ground against Miami quite often this season, which could lead to the kind of tackle production that draws eyeballs, and no one in college football was more productive than Rodriguez last season. He finished fifth in the Heisman Trophy voting after leading Texas Tech with 128 tackles (11 for loss), four interceptions, six pass breakups and an FBS-high seven forced fumbles. He played for a dominant defense last season, and no one is expecting such things from the Dolphins' D in Year 1 of the Jeff Hafley era, but consider me intrigued.
Odds to win: +1600
Banks might have been a top-20 draft pick (selected 18th overall), but he's a deep sleeper in the DROY race. The main concern is his health. He missed all but three games in his final college season due to a left foot injury, and he then re-injured that same foot at the NFL Scouting Combine in February, requiring surgery. It must have earned a sigh of relief from Vikings fans to see him for the first day of practice in training camp, but there's understandably some skepticism long-term given his injury history. Minnesota hit reset on the defensive line this offseason, so the door is wide open for Banks to claim a starting job. It's proven extremely difficult for interior defensive linemen to win the DROY award -- Aaron Donald, Sheldon Richardson and Ndamukong Suh are the only ones to accomplish the feat in the last 30 years -- but Banks has the raw tools to be a weekly shop-wrecker if he stays healthy.
Odds to win: +6000
As tough as it's been for interior defensive linemen to win DROY, it's been an even steeper climb for safeties. But, hey, the last safety to win the award was a Bears player -- Mark Carrier in 1990 -- so maybe it's time for another Monster of the Midway to break the streak. Thieneman is expected to start from Day 1 after the mass exodus from Chicago's secondary in the offseason. He's shown the ability to be prolific in taking the ball away, intercepting six passes and forcing two fumbles as a true freshman at Purdue. It's probably going to take production like that for a safety to snap the 35-year drought, but if he proves a quick study in Dennis Allen's defense, Thieneman should have his takeaway chances.
Odds to win: +2000
Allen opened camp on the PUP list with a calf injury, but general manager Chris Ballard said the team expects it to be . That's good news, since the Colts are counting on Allen to be their starting middle linebacker in Lou Anarumo's defense. He's known more for steady performance than splash plays, but let's not forget the Browns' Carson Schwesinger, a second-round middle 'backer, won DROY last season despite posting just 2.5 sacks, two interceptions and no forced fumbles. One of the unavoidable obstacles for Allen might be his draft pedigree as the 53rd overall pick. Since 1981, only one player drafted outside of the top 40 picks has won DROY -- safety Erik McMillan, a third-round pick of the New York Jets in 1988.
Odds to win: +2000
I know he's no lock to start and plenty of NFL Scouting Combine stars have gone on to fade into oblivion once the real games begin, but I'm throwing caution to the wind here. With Rashan Gary being acquired for a very reasonable price from an edge-rush-needy Packers team this offseason and Donovan Ezeiruaku coming off a two-sack rookie season, there's a chance Lawrence quickly develops into the Cowboys' best edge rusher. And yes, I'll not soon forget that Lawrence posted an eye-popping 4.52-second 40-yard dash, 10-foot-10 broad jump and 40-inch vertical at 253 pounds during his combine workout in February. Even if the 23rd overall pick plays a designated pass rusher role in Year 1, his explosiveness could translate into production that gains DROY voters' attention. One major obstacle to the throne for Lawrence might be his own teammate, 11th overall pick Caleb Downs (more on him later).
Odds to win: +1800
After losing their top two cornerbacks from last season and trading up a few spots in Round 1 to pick Delane sixth overall, the Chiefs have a lot riding on the rookie's performance in 2026. A three-year starter in college, he was considered a mature draft prospect capable of playing from Day 1. The Chiefs are counting on Delane to start right away, which gives him a leg up on a lot of his competition in the DROY race. There's some question about whether he'll be able to immediately deliver, though, after missing minicamp with a shoulder injury and opening camp wearing a yellow (non-contact) jersey in practice. That bears watching. Also, it's pretty rare for a cornerback to produce enough to rise to the top of the rookie heap. Since 2000, just three CBs have won DROY, including only one in the last eight years (Sauce Gardner, 2022).
Odds to win: +900
Reese would probably be higher on this list if New York had cleared a spot for him to focus solely on rushing off the edge as a rookie. I'm sure the Giants will let him get after the passer in 2026, but they are starting him off as an off-ball linebacker, where he'll be further away from the action and likely missing out on some sack production (aka DROY gold) that would have otherwise been there for the taking. Regardless, there are draft analysts, including colleague Lance Zierlein, who viewed Reese as clearly the best player in this year's draft. So, it was a surprise to some when he had to wait to hear his name called until Pick No. 5. If DC Dennard Wilson puts together a plan to squeeze the most disruption out of Reese's rare athletic gifts, he'll be front and center in the awards conversation. The process might require some patience.
Odds to win: +750
I can hear you shouting at your screen right now: Safeties don't win Defensive Rookie of the Year! I know -- it hasn't happened since 1990, and as you can see from Downs' placement on his list, I'm not predicting he will win the award ... but I don't think he'll be irrelevant in the conversation. The Cowboys were doing cartwheels when Downs fell to them at No. 11 because he seemed to have the elite leadership skills and productive track record that would make the perfect player to launch a defensive renaissance in Big D. He could very well prove them right. There's just a long way to go for a Dallas defense that reached historic lows in 2025, and I'm not sure new DC Christian Parker can fix it all in one offseason. With Parker coming from Philly, whereĀ Cooper DeJean's versatility was showcased, I expect to see a similar role for Downs. DeJean finished fourth in the DROY voting back in 2024, but maybe award voters will have a greater appreciation for the value of such a role two years later.
Odds to win: +750
We haven't seen off-ball linebackers win DROY in back-to-back seasons since DeMeco Ryans, Patrick Willis, Jerod Mayo and Brian Cushing corralled the award in four straight years from 2006 to '09, but Styles has the potential to produce the kind of debut campaign that would make him the worthy successor to the Browns' Carson Schwesinger. Styles had jaws dropping at the NFL Scouting Combine with a historic performance that included the highest vertical jump (43 1/2 inches) by any combine prospect 6-foot-4 or taller and any prospect weighing 240-plus pounds since at least 2003. The rave reviews have followed the seventh overall pick into camp. "He doesn't seem like a rookie. He seems like an eight-year vet," fifth-year LB Leo Chenal told . "... He's an animal on the field. He's a monster out there. The way he carries himself, the way he's disciplined in his routine. It's really showing up every day. He's really consistent." Replacing Bobby Wagner is a huge ask of any player, let alone a rookie, but Styles has the pedigree to not allow the moment to get too big for him.
Odds to win: +750
As the first defensive player selected in this year's draft (No. 2 overall), Bailey's DROY chances are very strong. Some might even say the strongest of anyone on this list. In four of the last 10 seasons, the first defensive player drafted has gone on to win the award. While some coaches tend to avoid anything resembling high praise for rookies before they play their first snap, Aaron Glenn isn't hiding his satisfaction. So far, Bailey's energy, speed and quickness off the edge is everything the Jets expected to see from him, . If Bailey's production carries over to the pros -- he tied for the FBS lead with 14.5 sacks last season -- he could easily leave the other top defensive rookies in the dust. If things don't improve significantly for the Jets in 2026, he might not be seeing as many pass-rush chances as he would like, with teams holding leads over Gang Green and running the ball to eat clock late in games. Bailey might not be a complete package yet, with questions about whether he has the size and power to hold up against the run. There are too many checked boxes in his favor for him to be any lower on my list, though.
Odds to win: +500
I admit vibes were the determining factor in choosing between Bailey and Bain for the top spot. The chip on Bain's shoulder must be heavy after he dealt with constant scrutiny of his arm length all draft season, despite coming off a dominant campaign that helped Miami reach the national title game. Then he waited in the green room until Pick No. 15 to hear his name called on draft night after being regularly mocked in the top 10. The Bucs were delighted to land him, of course, but I feel like the teams drafting ahead of Tampa Bay just poked a junkyard dog. Maybe the arm-length questions will be proven prescient and Bain won't be able to wreak havoc like he did in college with bigger and better athletes lining up across from him each week. Or maybe there's a fire lit in him that no arm-length disadvantage is going to be able to extinguish. I'm too consumed by the latter scenario to project a different outcome.
Odds to win: +500
