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The Bills rank first here because of Josh Allen. Buffalo has won at least one playoff game for six straight years, and Allen has an 8-7 record in the postseason, but the Bills have not reached a Super Bowl since the 1990s. With Allen, they’re in the race nearly every year, though they failed to take advantage of a perceived weak AFC field last season.

Have the Bills improved their defense enough? It might not be a one-year fix. That’s where the majority of Buffalo’s questions lie, although it remains to be seen if the additions the organization made at wide receiver will be upgrades. The division also appears more competitive a year after the Patriots made a surprise run to the top.

Whether the Bills can finally break through or not is unknown, but this appears to be the best-equipped team on the list to make that happen in the short term. 

Even after a 9-8 slip-up season, missing the playoffs, the Lions appear well-equipped to bounce back. Some of that record might have come with bad luck. Detroit was plus-68 in scoring differential (eighth-best in the league) with a 3-5 record in one-score games. Head coach Dan Campbell's hyper-aggressive approach backfired down the stretch with all the fourth-down failures. There might be some who believe the Lions are on the downswing, but Campbell has lived by this sword previously and had success. His team is also fairly loaded, everything considered, with a battled-tested QB in Jared Goff, other strong offensive components and some firepower on defense.

The division is a monster, and the Lions aren’t sneaking up on anyone these days, but the schedule lines up pretty favorably to take back the NFC North. Even in the stacked NFC field, you have to give Detroit a chance at breaking a championship-less run that is going on nearly 70 years now.

Despite losing the division last season after two straight AFC South titles, the Texans actually fielded the best of DeMeco Ryans’ three squads since the coach took over. They went on the road in the playoffs to send Mike Tomlin home before losing in New England. 

Houston’s defense shined in both games while C.J. Stroud struggled. The Stroud question is probably the biggest thing holding me back on the Texans right now, and that isn’t something I expected to write after the quarterback's breakout rookie season. Stroud has flatlined since then and held back the team from its ultimate potential.

The defense is already one of the three best in the NFL, and it wouldn’t stun me if the unit ends up on top by season’s end. If Stroud and the offense can find another gear (after failing to pass the 20-point mark in more than half their games last season), then this absolutely could be the next franchise to break through.

The Bengals can compete for a title with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins operating at peak performance, just as they were in the 2021 and '22 seasons. The problem? They are seldom all healthy at the same time. Chase has only missed seven games in five years, but Higgins has missed 16 games over that same span and Burrow has been out with injury for significant chunks of two of the past three seasons.

Since losing in Super Bowl LVI and reaching the AFC Championship Game in the following season, the Bengals are a combined 24-27. Head coach Zac Taylor has held onto his job, and The Big Three will get another crack at it, but the Bengals are on borrowed time a bit.

The other big roadblock to success has been on defense. The Bengals have withered away on that side of the ball over the past four years, going from quite competent to pretty putrid last season. They’ll need to make a healthy jump in production on defense in order to regain contender status, but there are some pieces to work with on that side of the ball. 

The Chargers are 22-12 under head coach Jim Harbaugh in the regular season with two 11-win campaigns, but they are 0-2 in his two playoff appearances. Last season represented a small backstep, as well, with the Bolts winning games by far closer margins and failing to take advantage of the Chiefs’ first down year in more than a decade.

At his best, Justin Herbert can make a team a Super Bowl contender, even as his critics fairly point to his playoff shortcomings as evidence that he can’t. This season could end up being a big test of that theory. If the Chargers’ offensive line (which received more reinforcements this offseason and returned its two best blockers from injury) can improve, there will be fewer excuses for Herbert. Mike McDaniel calling plays also is a wild-card factor in this equation.

The Chargers’ defense has been mostly excellent over the past two seasons, but new coordinator Chris O'Leary has big shoes to fill with Jesse Minter taking over the Ravens’ head-coaching job. In half a dozen years as an NFL head man, Harbaugh has shown an ability to win regular-season games at nearly a 70 percent clip and has zero losing seasons, but his postseason record (5-5) doesn’t match that level of performance.

Last season appeared to accelerate the Jaguars’ chances of not only making the franchise’s first Super Bowl, but also potentially winning it. Trevor Lawrence had arguably his best season as a passer and runner in Liam Coen’s debut campaign as head coach, with Jacksonville stealing the AFC South crown and earning the second-most victories (13) in the franchise’s history.

Was last season fool’s gold or an indication that the team is here to stay? Lawrence is just now entering his prime, turning 27 in October, and there are some underrated pieces around him, as well as Coen’s sharp design, which paid immediate dividends in 2025. Defensively, the Jaguars were as good as they’ve been since the elite units from 2017 and '18, even without a fearsome pass rush.

After a quiet offseason, it’s fair to wonder whether the Jaguars have enough to make a title run. They were closer last season, but the first-round home loss to the Bills is a reminder of how far they still must go.

How close are the Panthers to competing for a title? That depends on how much you buy into last year’s progress. On the one hand, they finished 8-9 and were outscored by 69 points on the season. But on the other hand, Carolina rebounded from a 1-3 start, beat the Rams at home in late November, won the division and nearly knocked off the Rams again in the playoffs.

After adding edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd, the front seven appears to be in good shape. Carolina’s defense might rise with a secondary that showed an ability to make big plays last season, but the Panthers must get better on third and fourth downs and kick the pass rush into a higher gear.

All that said, the Panthers' ability to vie for a Super Bowl in the coming years rests more on Bryce Young than anyone else. The former No. 1 overall pick has had some brilliant moments, but also some maddeningly cold stretches; it’s been far too inconsistent, even week to week. If Young can thrive with some intriguing weapons and a refurbished offensive line, then Carolina’s path to a title is far clearer.

The Vikings are an extremely difficult team to gauge in terms of championship readiness because of the unsettled nature of the quarterback position, both short and long term. Kyler Murray has arrived to push J.J. McCarthy, and for all we know, that competition could be good for both in advancing their careers. But could it yield a championship in Minnesota?

Murray should have every chance to win the starting job, but he’s on a one-year deal with a no-franchise-tag clause, so the Vikings have this season to determine whether he’s the man for the job long term. With only one winning campaign to his name and an 0-1 playoff mark, Murray has yet to show he can get his team close to a Super Bowl. McCarthy has even farther to go in his development.

The Vikings have a talented coach in Kevin O’Connell, one of the best players in the game in Justin Jefferson and a first-rate defense led by the excellent Brian Flores. There are some redeemable qualities about this team, which closed last season with five straight wins. Winning a Super Bowl this season -- while competing in one of the tougher divisions -- feels like a stretch until we receive more clarity at QB.

Like the Vikings, the Falcons remain in QB purgatory until a winner is declared in the Tua Tagovailoa-Michael Penix Jr. battle. Tagovailoa appears to be the favorite in the race, and he quarterbacked two playoff teams in Miami, but there are health questions about both quarterbacks -- and about the team as a whole.

Also like the Vikings, the Falcons were a four-win team entering December of last season. Atlanta played stronger in December, but it wasn’t enough to save Raheem Morris’ job. Two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski has engineered two strong seasons recently in Cleveland, and he has talent to work with in Atlanta, but bringing it all together won’t be instant-coffee quick.

The Falcons have some elite offensive talent, and the defense could level up. The secondary appears to be a strong group, and the reloaded defensive front could be effective, especially if James Pearce Jr. avoids a lengthy suspension. The Falcons might be closer to contention than some believe, but how close they are to a Super Bowl is anyone’s guess now.

Cam Ward didn’t have a great rookie season, and he doesn’t yet resemble a quarterback capable of leading his team to a Super Bowl, but we once heard the same things about the past two Super Bowl-winning QBs, Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts. Time will tell if Ward ever can reach that level, but for now, I'm considering him a potential asset on the Titans’ quest to make their second Super Bowl and win their first.

Ward is surrounded by some interesting skill-position talent, and the offensive line added help. Perhaps a new scheme will breathe some life into this offense, but the biggest worry is keeping Ward upright after he was clobbered as a rookie, taking a league-high 55 sacks. Defensively, the Titans have a long way to go, but they added as many as a dozen potential new contributors this offseason.

This franchise has reason for optimism. Robert Saleh and all three of his coordinators have head-coaching experience. Ward and a promising 2025 draft crop, along with three or four rookies who could carve out starting jobs, offer some real hope. But the Titans are only nominally closer to a title now than they were a year ago and still have some mountains to move on that front.

I had them higher on this list prior to the Myles Garrett trade. I can’t really blame Cleveland for moving on from the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, but the timing and the return are both fair to question. This essentially pushes the clock back even more on the Browns’ pursuit for a Super Bowl -- even if it does increase their long-term chances to finally lift a Lombardi.

The Browns’ young nucleus looks terrific after two strong draft classes. The 2025 rookie crop was the best in the NFL last year, and that’s even with both QB selections yet to fully prove themselves. This season sets up as a possible Deshaun Watson-Shedeur Sanders battle, which certainly raises some red flags, but if either one can straighten out his game, he'll be leading a team that has risen the talent ranks considerably in recent years under general manager Andrew Berry’s roster building.

Will it all result in some wins? Talk about Super Bowls all you want, but until the Browns can stack back-to-back winning seasons -- which last occurred in 1988-89 -- it’s all a bit hollow. Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The Browns’ future does appear bright. The optimism feels founded in some respects. Yet until there is a far stronger product at quarterback, it’s hard to forecast Cleveland’s Super Bowl-less streak ending this season -- and maybe next.

At the bottom are the Cardinals. There’s no clear-cut long-term option at quarterback right now -- unless you consider third-round pick Carson Beck to be that -- and possible starter Jacoby Brissett remains at odds with the team over his contract. Throw in what was an underachieving defense last season, a conundrum in Marvin Harrison Jr. and a surprisingly old roster, along with playing in the gauntlet that is the NFC West, and you can begin to imagine the chore that new head coach Mike LaFleur faces in the desert.

It’s not a completely lost cause, however. If all that talent on defense comes together, Arizona could have a fairly competent unit, especially with a fierce group up front (depending on whether or not Josh Sweat). The secondary also looks like it could be pretty good. Rookie RB Jeremiyah Love should give the offense a boost, Trey McBride is a certifiable stud, and it’s far too soon to give up on Harrison, who's still just 23 years old.

But with QB questions, offensive line concerns and an absolutely brutal schedule, this does not have the look of a team that’s a few pieces away from a title run. Identifying the right quarterback this season or next offseason is a crucial goal for an organization that hasn’t been a serious contender for more than a decade.