There's not much debate: Quarterback is the most important position in sports. Consequently, there are few decisions more pivotal for an NFL front office than who to pay and who to play at the helm of their offense. And when need or fortune have presented a team with multiple options, that decision gets even tougher.
This offseason, five franchises could face a legitimate quarterback conundrum. I'm going to break down the factors in each of those situations and make informed predictions as to whom you will see under center come September.
But before we get to the 2026 landscape, let's lay some groundwork for our discussion by digging into quarterback competitions from recent history.
THE ARCHETYPES
While allowing that not every situation fits the same mold, there are, more or less, three archetypes for the typical QB battle:
1) The Rookie vs. The Veteran In Transition. This is probably the most common, with one or two notable examples unfolding almost every offseason. Think of Jaxson Dart vs. Russell Wilson in 2025, Michael Penix Jr. vs. Kirk Cousins in 2024 and so on. In this formula, the time it takes for the rookie to see his first start depends heavily on his draft slot. Here's an overview of the quarterbacks to start at some point in their rookie season over the last decade:
QBS TO START AS ROOKIES (BY DRAFT RANGE), 2016-2025
| Pick range | Week 1 start rate | Latest first start | Avg. first start |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 overall | 75% (6/8) | Wk 11 (Jared Goff) | Wks 2-3 |
| Nos. 2-32 | 32% (8/25) | Wk 17 (Patrick Mahomes) | Wks 4-5 |
| Day 2 | 8% (1/13) | Wk 16 (Will Grier) | Wks 8-9 |
| Day 3 | 5% (1/19) | Wk 18 (multiple) | Wks 9-10 |
Notably (ahem, Fernando Mendoza), the last six QBs drafted first overall have started on opening weekend of their rookie season. And even outside of Pick No. 1, 22 of the 27 other first-rounders made their first start of Year 1 before Week 10. The only exceptions were Penix (who waited behind Cousins in Atlanta), Lamar Jackson (behind Joe Flacco in Baltimore) and Patrick Mahomes (behind Alex Smith in Kansas City). Jordan Love (behind then-MVP Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay) and J.J. McCarthy (injured in Minnesota) didn't start at all as rookies. After Round 1, things become much murkier, with rookies and vets often splitting the season more or less down the middle, and only DeShone Kizer and Dak Prescott starting in Week 1 over the last decade.
2) The Questionable Youngster vs. The Questionable Veteran. This is essentially the first archetype, just spun forward a bit. These battles usually feature a young quarterback who struggled through their first year or two and a veteran getting another chance with a change of scenery. And unlike the first formula, this one tends to be more about performance than timeline. We saw this with Anthony Richardson versus Daniel Jones with the Colts in 2025, Aidan O'Connell versus Gardner Minshew with the Raiders in 2024 and Kyle Trask versus Baker Mayfield with the Bucs in 2023. Lately, the veteran has been more likely to win, often enjoying something of a career renaissance in new digs.
3) The Battle of the Bridges. The final archetype typically crops up when a rebuilding franchise yet to draft its future starter turns to a battle of veteran placeholder "bridge quarterbacks." It doesn't happen often, because those teams have usually drafted someone who can compete deep into the preseason, but we've seen it as recently as 2022, with both Baker Mayfield versus Sam Darnold in Carolina (where third-round pick Matt Corral was sidelined by injury in August) and Geno Smith versus Drew Lock in Seattle.
THE 2026 QB COMPETITIONS
Fernando Mendoza vs. Kirk Cousins
When a team drafts a QB No. 1 overall, usually there is little to no discussion about a "battle" -- as I mentioned earlier, the last six such QBs (going back to Kyler Murray in Arizona) all started Week 1 as rookies. That said, none of the teams in that chain also featured a recently signed four-time Pro Bowl QB in their . The question with Cousins is whether Las Vegas sees his main job as mentoring Mendoza or wants him to challenge the Heisman Trophy winner for the green dot.
NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that the "expectation" and "best-case scenario" in Vegas is that Cousins would start this year, giving Mendoza a chance to wait, learn and grow before taking the helm. The veteran's money is a bit hard to follow, as it involves salary from the Falcons, team options and void years, but in terms of how much the Raiders are investing in him for 2026, it's backup pay ($1.3 million). Regardless, QBs taken with the top pick almost always make their first start in September. Unless the coaching staff plans on shattering recent historical norms, we should see Mendoza -- who's been a "sponge" so far in OTAs, according to his new coordinator -- under center sooner than later.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Mendoza starts Week 1 (or by Week 3 at the latest) and keeps the job all year.
Kyler Murray vs. J.J. McCarthy
While the Raiders' battle is relatively straightforward, the situation in Minnesota appears to be wide open. According to NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero, Minnesota envisions this as "a true competition." And it's not hard to see why. The franchise drafted McCarthy 10th overall in 2024, and he logged a 6-4 record over 10 starts in 2025 after missing the '24 season due to injury. However, he dealt with injuries again in '25 and was downright awful statistically -- his 57.6 percent completion rate and 72.6 passer rating were both worst among the 34 QBs with at least 220 pass attempts last season. Conversely, Murray is a two-time Pro Bowler and a dynamic dual-threat, but he's played only one full season since 2021 and recorded only one winning record as a starter in seven years with the Cardinals. Also, Minnesota is paying him the league minimum, so this is more or less a free trial for them.
Both of these QBs need to stay healthy to have a shot at starterdom. But if both are available, Murray should win the job: He has the higher floor and higher ceiling, and this roster is capable of winning now. Like Daniel Jones (with Shane Steichen) and Baker Mayfield (with Dave Canales), Murray could see a renaissance season with QB-whisperer Kevin O'Connell. I believe KOC will feel the same way and give him the opportunity.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Murray starts Week 1, keeps the job and wins 10+ games.
Michael Penix Jr. vs. Tua Tagovailoa
For the second time in three seasons, Atlanta is hosting a QB competition involving Penix, the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, with Tagovailoa replacing Kirk Cousins. The major caveats this time around: Penix is recovering from a torn ACL (suffered in November), and Tagovailoa is earning the league minimum. Also, the Falcons have a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski, who has 14 games of up-and-down Penix tape to consider while the 26-year-old rehabs and splits practice reps.
If Penix is healthy enough to compete, this could be one of the more fascinating battles in recent memory. Both QBs are left-handed pocket passers, both have shown flashes of excellence amid stretches of mediocrity, both have concerning injury histories and both would feel pressure to take Atlanta to the playoffs (for the first time since 2017). The decision might come down to fit for Stefanski and OC Tommy Rees. Penix has preferred to throw downfield and outside the hashes, relying on his receivers' catch-point skills, while Tagovailoa thrives on quick-hitters over the middle in the short and intermediate areas, weaponizing his receivers' YAC ability. Stefanski's offenses leaned more toward the latter strategy in Cleveland recently, and Tagovailoa also holds the (current) health and experience cards.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Tagovailoa starts Week 1; Penix takes over by Weeks 6-8 if Tagovailoa's not helping the team win games.
Deshaun Watson vs. Shedeur Sanders
There is little, if any, precedent for projecting how the Browns’ quarterback competition will play out in 2026. They have Watson, a three-time Pro Bowler who's played in just 19 games over four seasons in Cleveland due to a suspension and multiple injuries. There’s Dillon Gabriel and Sanders, drafted in the third and fifth rounds in 2025, respectively. Gabriel earned a starting role before Sanders last season, but the latter won more games. To complicate matters even further, the Browns selected Arkansas' Taylen Green, a freakishly athletic dual-threat quarterback, in the sixth round of this year's draft.
By most accounts, the competition seems to be primarily between Watson and Sanders and is still far from over. Sanders is sort of the incumbent after starting Cleveland’s last seven contests in 2025, but it took Watson’s absence (Achilles rehab), Joe Flacco’s interception bonanza and Gabriel’s stint in the concussion protocol for him to see the field. Watson carries a in the final season of his five-year contract. He also, theoretically, has a franchise quarterback ceiling somewhere in his repertoire, nearly forgotten though it may be. Barring an undeniable leap from Sanders in training camp, I think Watson gets the nod in Cleveland.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Watson starts Week 1; Sanders and Green both see action in 2026.
Jacoby Brissett vs. Gardner Minshew vs. Carson Beck
Brissett would theoretically have the inside track after starting 12 games in Arizona last season, but he went 1-11 in those games and has been absent from the Cardinals’ offseason program, as he and the team are still reportedly far apart on a potential new contract. Minshew, who signed in March, projects as a backup and is essentially the league’s go-to stopgap quarterback at this point. Arizona also drafted 24-year-old Miami prospect Carson Beck 65th overall, just a few months after he led the 'Canes to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
Considering Brissett and Minshew are more or less known commodities, I imagine Arizona might like to get Beck some starts in 2026 -- though the first of those opportunities might come fairly deep into the season, at least according to historical precedent. That means either handing Brissett a raise or rocking with the mustachioed journeyman Minshew to start the year. Given Brissett's established chemistry with players like Trey McBride and Michael Wilson and the existence of enough cap space for Arizona to bump Brissett's compensation, I believe the team will pay Brissett and start him over Minshew in Week 1. But I also expect to see Beck in 2026, perhaps as early as Week 4 at the Giants or as late as Week 15 vs. the Jets off the bye.
PREDICTED OUTCOME: Brissett gets a raise and starts in Week 1; Beck eventually starts several games.
