With three seasons of QB Index work in the books, I'm back to put a different spin on the signal-calling landscape. Instead of evaluating quarterbacks individually, I'm ranking each division's collection of players at the position.
Which quartet of passers is the strongest in the league? Which needs the most work? And is there one that's unfairly bogged down by one team's bad situation? (Yes, yes there is.)
Here are my 2026 division rankings based on quarterbacks:
8) NFC SOUTH
- Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr./Tua Tagovailoa
- Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
- New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield
The NFC South stands as a grab bag of differing quarterback situations. Baker Mayfield has the most solid standing among all five signal-callers listed above, and it would be even stronger had he maintained his white-hot start for the majority of the 2025 season. He's a streaky quarterback, but he's a wildly entertaining watch because of a play style that often exposes him to bumps and bruises. His second-half decline in 2025 could be blamed on injury, but I still value what he brings to the table.
Tyler Shough is a very promising quarterback who looked the part in the final six weeks of the 2025 season and seems to mesh well with coach Kellen Moore. I'm eager to see whether he takes a step or two forward in his second NFL season, which should be his first as the Saints' full-time starter. I'm more apprehensive when it comes to Bryce Young, whose highs and lows vary too significantly for him to be trusted on a weekly basis. If Young can establish some consistency in his third year under coach Dave Canales, he can answer the many questions that follow him into the 2026 campaign, but that's a big "if."
The pecking order in Atlanta should work itself out over the course of the season. Tua Tagovailoa arrived as insurance for Michael Penix Jr., who is returning from significant knee injury. Even before the health setback, Penix failed to demonstrate significant progress in his second pro season. Ultimately, this situation is far from settled. Penix's timeline to return doesn't appear to be entirely firm at this stage, and if Tagovailoa ends up playing in his place and succeeding, things could get complicated. Regardless, both players need a rebound season in 2026. We'll see if either creates one.
7) AFC SOUTH
- Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud
- Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
- Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward
Here's a fun little four-pack of quarterbacks at different stages of their careers. C.J. Stroud needs to produce a strong season to quiet the doubters and convince the Texans he's their man for the future, especially after the four-pick nightmare in Houston's Divisional Round loss at New England. Trevor Lawrence successfully answered similar questions in 2025, becoming one of the NFL's most explosive and effective quarterbacks in the second half of the season, thanks to a promising marriage with first-year coach Liam Coen and a willingness to use his legs more than ever. Daniel Jones enjoyed a renaissance campaign that can't be fully trusted only because of how it ended: with a season-ending Achilles injury. That places him on an uncertain timeline for return, but the rehab process appears to be . And despite playing for one of the NFL's worst teams overall, Cam Ward produced plenty of proof that he'll be Tennessee's chosen quarterback for years to come, provided the Titans equip him with a stronger supporting cast. We'll see if their offseason roster-building efforts -- and switch to new head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll -- pay off in 2026. If they do, the perception of Ward should be enhanced significantly this fall.
6) AFC EAST
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
- Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis
- New England Patriots: Drake Maye
- New York Jets: Geno Smith
Talk about a top-heavy division. In Buffalo and New England, we find two of the top four quarterbacks in the NFL from the 2025 season -- two NFL MVP finalists who seem to be on track to battle for division titles for years to come. Drake Maye wasn't great in a postseason run to the Super Bowl, but his second pro season was still remarkable. The young passer improved by leaps and bounds during the regular season, proving himself to be an outrageously accurate and confident quarterback who has swiftly filled the Patriots' need for a franchise signal-caller. We all know what the Bills have in Josh Allen: a legitimate superstar who makes Buffalo a perennial Super Bowl contender.
Then, there are the other two teams. In a funny twist, Geno Smith's career journey has led him back to where it started, with the QB welcomed back to the Jets like . That shows how desperate Gang Green is for stability under center. There's no guarantee it will work, but if the Jets can protect Smith better than the Raiders' leaky offensive line did last year, he'll find success.
Malik Willis, on the other hand, is a relatively unknown quantity who signed a healthy contract after capitalizing on his few opportunities to prove his worth as Jordan Love's backup on the Packers. I'm a believer in Willis, but I'm concerned about the situation he's walking into in Miami, where the Dolphins traded away what would have been Willis' best target, Jaylen Waddle, as part of their massive rebuilding effort. The road is shaping up to be a bumpy one for Willis in his first season with the Fins, but hopefully he learned enough from his time under Matt LaFleur in Green Bay to handle the challenge in South Florida.
5) AFC NORTH
- Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
- Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
- Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson/Shedeur Sanders
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers
After the rest of the division finishes thanking the Browns for trading Myles Garrett to Los Angeles, they can immediately pivot toward criticizing Cleveland for bogging down the division's ranking in this exercise.
Look at the rest of the AFC North's quarterbacks: Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, perennial MVP contender Joe Burrow and four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, who was good enough at age 42 to agree to run it back with the Steelers in 2026. The upper half of the division is incredibly strong, and while Rodgers is now average -- at best -- he's still significantly ahead of what Cleveland is rolling out.
The Browns appear to be laying the foundation to name Deshaun Watson, a quarterback who hasn't seen the field since 2024 and was awful the last time he was on it, their starter in 2026. Treacherous? Undoubtedly. Despite the obvious pitfalls, though, Cleveland clearly wants to get something out of Watson's abomination of a $230 million contract before it expires after the season. If it works out, that's a nice consolation prize that could convince the Browns to retain Watson at a much lower rate beyond 2026. If it doesn't, they'll be in the running for a coveted rookie QB in 2027. Plus, Shedeur Sanders could get some time to continue proving he's worth a roster spot (and perhaps more) going forward.
We know the story of these other quarterbacks at this point, although I am fascinated to see how Jackson handles the scheme installed by Declan Doyle, a disciple of Ben Johnson, and how Rodgers' reunion with Mike McCarthy pans out, especially on a team built to pound the run out of heavy personnel.
4) NFC NORTH
- Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams
- Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
- Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
- Minnesota Vikings: Kyler Murray/J.J. McCarthy
Look, I know it was only one great season, but I love watching Caleb Williams play football. The cardiac Bears became a heart-stopping spectacle because of Williams' cold-blooded heroics, yet what matters most to me is how well Williams meshed with Ben Johnson, who was able to use Williams' natural talents to the Bears' advantage in Year 2. With this partnership in place, I expect more progress from Williams, who is quickly climbing the star-power ladder, having just landed on the cover of Madden NFL 27.
We've long known Jared Goff is at his best when he's well protected, and the Lions struggled with that in 2025. Still, Goff produced excellent numbers even amid Detroit's O-line decline, a credit to the former No. 1 overall pick's persistence and mental toughness. I have a pretty good idea of who Goff is at this stage of his career: a QB who will flirt with a top-10 ranking, provided disaster doesn't strike.
Jordan Love, meanwhile, has that potential but hasn't delivered in the biggest moments consistently enough for me to trust him. I think plenty of folks in the Packers organization will admit they left a handful of points, wins and opportunities to achieve something greater out on the field in 2025. Love needs to level up in clutch moments for the Packers to fulfill their potential. Hopefully, that begins in 2026.
Lastly, there's the QB derby that already feels like it has a leader -- if not a winner -- in Minnesota. The Vikings took a big risk by letting Sam Darnold walk and handing the keys to J.J. McCarthy in 2025. After injuries interrupted McCarthy's season and the former No. 10 overall pick failed to demonstrate he was ready to handle the responsibility of being a franchise quarterback, the Vikings made the moved to sign Kyler Murray in March. Murray's addition provides Minnesota with a competitor for McCarthy, but more realistically, a veteran who arrives with the expectation he'll win the starting job and steady an offense that lacked direction for much of 2025. The Vikings won nine games last season with zero stability under center. Hopefully, Murray provides it in 2026, and McCarthy takes the time to develop into the franchise signal-caller Minnesota thought it was selecting in 2024.
3) NFC EAST
- Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
- New York Giants: Jaxson Dart
- Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
- Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels
I've accepted that the average football fan will not give Dak Prescott his flowers unless the Cowboys finally win something. It's fine, but ball knowers understand Prescott was one of the NFL's best quarterbacks last season and should be expected to continue producing at such a rate in 2026. I cannot make the same confident statement about Jalen Hurts, a quarterback who seemed to fall victim to his own perfectionism as much as he did to Philadelphia's offensive dysfunction. New coordinator Sean Mannion should revamp the scheme and fix those issues in 2026, but there's a big difference between should and will. For his part, Hurts needs to stop seeking the perfect throw and just start making the open one.
Jayden Daniels' sophomore season was essentially a wash due to multiple injuries. He couldn't stay on the field consistently enough to establish a rhythm and sustained his worst ailment in garbage time of a blowout loss, underscoring the waste that was the Commanders' season as a whole. I pray they get back on track in 2026 and keep Daniels upright and healthy, because he's too good to spend most of the season on the sideline.
Speaking of injuries, I have a message for Jaxson Dart: Please protect yourself. After ascending to the starting job, the quarterback missed time because of a concussion and a failure to make business decisions. I respect and appreciate Dart's competitive nature, but no position is more valuable than franchise quarterback. If he wants to be that, he needs to look out for himself -- and the Giants' chances of competing.
2) AFC WEST
- Denver Broncos: Bo Nix
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
- Las Vegas Raiders: Kirk Cousins/Fernando Mendoza
- Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
I'll admit my evaluation of Bo Nix might have been a little too tempered in 2025, especially when considering how effective Denver's offense proved to be late in the season. Two years into his pro career, Nix has significantly exceeded expectations and has a point to prove entering 2026 after an ankle injury robbed him of a chance to compete for the AFC title. I'm eager to see how it plays out, especially with Jaylen Waddle joining the receiving corps.
Patrick Mahomes heads toward the 2026 campaign in an unfamiliar place. His Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time in his career and he's working his way back from the season-ending knee injury he suffered in December. He too has a point to prove, and it's an even greater one than what Nix is chasing. Mahomes has to show the world he's still Patrick Mahomes -- and that these are still the big, bad Kansas City Chiefs. We'll see how that transpires, starting with the question of whether Mahomes will be ready to go in Week 1.
Justin Herbert's breakdown is simple: Please protect him, Chargers. He played heroically in 2025 despite being under constant assault, proving his toughness behind an injury-riddled O-line. It wasn't his best season, but it might have been his most impressive. It's time for the Chargers to build on that, instead of spinning their wheels because of trench deficiencies.
The Raiders are another fascinating team entering 2026 because of how they intend to handle the quarterback situation. New coach Klint Kubiak said he wanted a veteran to run the show from Day 1 in the right scenario, then had his wish granted days later when the Raiders signed Kirk Cousins, the appointed steward of this unit. Before long, though, this will be No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza's offense, hopefully as the result of a process that isn't rushed.
1) NFC WEST
- Arizona Cardinals: Jacoby Brissett
- Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
- San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy
- Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold
It shouldn't surprise you that the division with three playoff teams from last season and two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks ranks first entering 2026. Here we have reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford, Super Bowl LX champion Sam Darnold, still-rising quarterback Brock Purdy (who has also reached a Super Bowl in his career) ... and Jacoby Brissett. The Cardinals' QB1 is entering a tenuous situation in Arizona, where new coach Mike LaFleur arrived and, in tandem with GM Monti Ossenfort, brought in veteran Gardner Minshew and rookie third-rounder Carson Beck. Brissett joined mandatory minicamp, but is still pursuing a raise. As for the other three QBs, Stafford is coming off the best season of his career and gearing up for another run at a Super Bowl. Darnold is basking in the glow of winning his first Super Bowl in his first season with the Seahawks, the team that was willing to take the risk in signing him to a nine-figure deal last offseason. And Purdy is aiming to stay healthier than he was in 2025, with the hopes of propelling the 49ers past their overachieving finish in the Divisional Round. This is a battle of heavyweights; prepare for fireworks.
