The beauty and danger of free agency can be summed up in one team: the New England Patriots. Last year, they executed a monumental turnover of their roster, signing Stefon Diggs, Milton Williams, K'Lavon Chaisson, Carlton Davis and Robert Spillane, among others. They won 10 more regular-season games than the year before and went to the Super Bowl. That, of course, is the beauty of what smart shopping can bring. The danger is thinking that kind of turnaround will happen every time out, to every team with a lot of money to spend.
The second day of the negotiating period saw more deals, but no more clarity. Grading transactions at this point in the year is pointless -- the goal of all these deals is not to win the transaction, it's to win the Super Bowl. We are months away from knowing who had the best free agency and who let an opportunity slip away.
Still, we can at least assess which teams are addressing needs, what players have cashed in and, perhaps, who has been let down by free agency. But it's worth remembering that these are projections. The more telling assessments come on the field.
WINNERS
1) Geno Smith and the New York Jets: You CAN go home again. Smith was drafted by the Jets in 2013, started 30 games for them over four seasons, had his jaw fractured by teammate IK Enemkpali, last played for them in 2016, resurrected his career in Seattle, struggled with the Raiders and now returns via trade to where he started as a different quarterback. Smith has grown immensely as a leader and mentor, which the Jets badly need. He has played at a Pro Bowl level in his career, and he is still able to throw the ball to the perimeter, where Garrett Wilson awaits.
Last year with the Raiders was a disaster -- certainly not a problem exclusively of Smith's making, considering the dysfunction in Las Vegas -- but in 2024, he threw for 4,300 yards and led the Seahawks to 10 wins. Smith is, at minimum, a placeholder starter for the Jets, and not an expensive one since the Raiders are picking up the bulk of the $18.5 million he was guaranteed this season. They can draft a quarterback this year with one of their 10 selections, or they can wait until next year, when they have three first-round draft picks in what is expected to be a loaded quarterback class. Smith is simply competent, which is an upgrade for the Jets. They can win games with him while they look for the quarterback of the future. Smith was right: They wrote him off, and .
2) Drake Maye: The Patriots landed their replacement for Stefon Diggs, signing Romeo Doubs, who last season had a career-high 724 yards, but had eight catches for 124 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay's playoff loss, and logged career-best marks in multiple Next Gen Stats categories. He's about to turn 26 and is poised to have a significant role in the Patriots offense. The Patriots were interested in a trade for A.J. Brown, but momentum around that trade seems to have cooled in recent days.
And late on Monday night, the Patriots reached an agreement with guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, shoring up an offensive line that was clearly the team's biggest need this offseason. Vera-Tucker has had injury issues -- he missed all of last season with a torn triceps and has also torn the other triceps and his Achilles' tendon -- but he is just 26 years old, and when he is healthy, he is elite, a former first round draft pick who is one of the best pass-blocking guards in the league.
Vera-Tucker is likely to slot between left tackle Will Campbell and center Jared Wilson, who is expected to assume the starting job following the trade of Garrett Bradbury to the Bears. In that spot, he should be able to help Campbell, who struggled after he returned from injury in his rookie season. And the improved unit should give some relief to Maye, who had a breakout season and was the league MVP runner-up despite being sacked 47 times in the regular season. He was sacked an astounding 21 times in four playoff games, and the lack of protection was one of the key reasons for the Patriots' blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
That's two big pieces who should make Maye's job much easier in 2026.
3) Teams landing cheap quarterbacks: What Russell Wilson started -- signing for little money because his previous team is still paying him (he did it when he left Denver and signed with Pittsburgh) -- has taken off and benefited teams and quarterbacks this offseason. Tua Tagovailoa agreed to terms quickly with the Falcons, who got themselves a starting-caliber quarterback for the league minimum, after being released by the Dolphins. The same is likely to happen for Kyler Murray, who is expected to be released on Wednesday, and will still be paid mostly by the Cardinals, expanding the pool of teams that could be interested in him -- like the Vikings, who have . The Jets did it too, with the Raiders picking up most of Geno Smith's salary for this season, and the Jets paying just a little over the veteran minimum. The deal works for all parties -- teams pay little for their starters, and quarterbacks get a chance to resurrect their careers, and, if all goes well, potentially hit free agency again next season.
LOSERS
1) J.J. McCarthy: The Vikings quarterback has spent the last two days hearing about how Kyler Murray is the perfect fit for his team. It's no secret that the Vikings want to bring in competition for McCarthy, but Murray, who would come cheap to the Vikings because the Cardinals are still paying him, would be more than that. Murray is an experienced veteran who has, when healthy, looked like a franchise quarterback, possessing dynamic playmaking ability and putting together multiple nearly 4,000-yard passing seasons. Murray is not free to reach an agreement until he is released by the Cardinals, so that has stretched out a process everyone in the NFL knows will happen -- Murray will be a free agent, the best one still available. That means McCarthy twists in the wind a little longer. At the very best, he knows that if the Vikings sign Murray, he has a big fight on his hands to hold on to the starting job.
2) Trey Hendrickson: He is the best remaining free agent at a premium position, and he had to wait through the first two days of the negotiating window. Why the wait? Hendrickson is 31 and the pass rushers who have gotten the blockbuster contracts -- like Jaelan Phillips, who averaged $30 million per year and Odafe Oweh, who averaged $25 million – are several years younger. Hendrickson is also coming off a core muscle injury that limited him to seven games in 2025. As a result, the market has clearly not met Hendrickson's hopes, which included what he had wanted from the Bengals for the last few years, a multi-year commitment and a contract that places him at the top of the pass rusher market, which now sits in the . When he is healthy, he is highly productive -- he had 17.5 sacks in both 2023 and 2024 -- and there are plenty of teams that can use him. But first, a recalibration of expectations is probably going to be needed.
3) People hoping Aaron Rodgers would announce a decision on his future by the start of free agency: Nope, not yet. The Steelers have made it clear they want Rodgers back and they have shored up their offense in the meantime, trading for receiver Michael Pittman and signing running back Rico Dowdle, which -- in addition to the hiring of Mike McCarthy -- would seem to make a return to Pittsburgh enticing. Rodgers has professed to enjoy his time there, the Steelers had a great experience, too, and it seems unlikely that Rodgers would play anywhere else. The Steelers haven't given Rodgers a deadline for a decision, but nobody expects it will go all the way to June.
