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2026 NFL offseason: Don't overreact to these five storylines

Welcome to the slow season -- if there is one. With fewer NFL headlines at this time of year, certain storylines inevitably become overamplified, occasionally even beyond the threshold of pain.

Fear not. As your friendly neighborhood football anesthesiologist, I'm here to dull that ache. Just a few doses of calm perspective, and you'll be ready for training camp in a month, completely unbothered by the din.

Some headlines deserve a little volume. Others are just noise. Here are five recent ones that I'd personally like to turn down the knob on just a bit.

1) A.J. Brown's arrival instantly sets up Patriots for another Super Bowl run. I want it to be clear that I think New England has lacked a receiver like this for a while now, and a motivated Brown could turn in one of his better seasons with Drake Maye throwing his way. Romeo Doubs also was a nice addition, even if his numbers might appear relatively tame.

The Patriots clearly took advantage of a weak regular-season schedule last year and also exploited a wide-open AFC field, the rest of which imploded down the stretch. I don't believe either of those things will happen again in the coming season.

With a tougher track and, I suspect, a more competitive conference, New England might not be able to pull off seven one-score victories for the second season in a row. The Mike Vrabel drama also has revealed a different vulnerability after coaching was arguably one of the 2025 Pats' biggest strengths. Re-creating that synergy in 2026 could be tough.

There also are defensive questions, including the pass rush ( with rookie Gabe Jacas?) and a possible contract standoff with Christian Gonzalez as negotiations continue to stretch out. The offensive line also must prove itself. So, while Brown is no doubt an upgrade on offense, replicating the same team success goes beyond what A.J. can give them.

2) Myles Garrett trade makes Rams Super Bowl favorites. I'll start by saying I graded Los Angeles' roster as, pound for pound, the best in the NFL by a slight margin over Seattle's prior to the Rams swinging their big trade for Garrett. They were clearly right there with the Seahawks a year ago, beating them once by two points and losing twice by a combined five points.

I'll be stunned if the Rams aren't very good this season, and adding Garrett certainly didn't make them worse. Not to mention, they significantly improved the secondary with the additions of cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. But those moves also didn't pave the road to the Super Bowl in Rams gold.

First, L.A. must hope for no major snags in its season. Matthew Stafford's health is an annual concern always worth monitoring. Puka Nacua spent time in a rehabilitation center this offseason. Davante Adams has missed games in each of the past two campaigns. And the Rams aren't exactly stacked at receiver beyond their dynamic duo. The offensive line is undergoing change, too.

Plus, the Rams still play in a brutal division, with two other likely contenders. The NFC as a whole appears more stacked than the AFC. Garrett is a fantastic player, but is he that much better than Jared Verse that he'll significantly elevate Los Angeles' defense? It's possible. But it's also possible that non-Garrett factors prevent the Rams from realizing their ultimate dreams.

3) Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers "not anywhere close" to extension. Summertime in the NFL is for fluff stories. But it's also negotiating season, and with that comes some tough talk. Mayfield's recent comments that he and the Bucs are "not anywhere close" to a contract extension shouldn't necessarily be concerning.

Why? This sort of thing is pretty commonplace, especially for QB negotiations. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens went through it prior to his 2023 extension, and they're going through it again now. Dak Prescott has endured multiple rounds of this, and he remains the face of the Cowboys franchise.

Mayfield has expressed a desire to stay in Tampa long-term while setting a firm personal boundary on the timing and terms of the deal. There might be a gap that needs bridging, but "not close" right now doesn't exactly feel like a fractured relationship or that a deal is doomed.

If both sides can get it done before the soft deadline of training camp -- and deadlines spur action, as we know -- then Mayfield can have his deal and enter 2026 untrammeled. If not, he comes in with yet another chip on his shoulder.

I've ridden the Mayfield roller coaster, going from a big supporter to someone who wonders just how long his future with the Bucs will be. His play leveled off down the stretch last season, and no one should just write off the offseason loss of Mike Evans, even with some pretty decent receivers left over.

I think Mayfield's deal eventually will get done because this sort of public posturing is nothing new. The Bucs might quietly share some of my concerns, for all I know, but Baker's certainly the best option they have now -- and likely next season, as well. That's what makes me think Mayfield will get paid eventually, and the timing shouldn't significantly change his outcome.

4) Jeffery Simmons, Titans agree on record DT deal. I saw some people wondering whether Simmons was worth the money he received on his recent extension, which made him the NFL's first interior defensive lineman to earn $100 million guaranteed. It also raised the bar significantly for DTs, with the 28-year-old receiving a whopping $35.3 million per year. The next-highest-paid player at the position, Chris Jones, averages nearly $4 million less per year.

But the idea that Simmons is overpaid feels shortsighted to me. I don't think people realize just how damned good he was last season. Sure, it was for a last-place team, but we just saw two squads -- the Bears and Patriots -- with young quarterbacks and new coaches go from the cellar to hosting playoff games this past January, which is clearly the path the Titans envision if Cam Ward takes a big step in Year 2.

Plus, Simmons feels like an excellent fit in Robert Saleh's defensive system, which emphasizes stopping the run first to help generate more pass-rush opportunities for his front four. We've seen elite talents such as DeForest Buckner and Quinnen Williams thrive under Saleh, playing some of the best football of their respective careers.

Simmons' salary won't look so pricey once Jalen Carter and other young defensive tackles get extended in the next year or so, and the Titans can afford it with Ward on a rookie contract. Saleh knows that Simmons is one of his defensive linchpins, and I think the four-time Pro Bowler will more than prove his worth in the coming years.

5) Giants sign Odell Beckham Jr., other receivers amid Malik Nabers injury questions. When head coach John Harbaugh said that Nabers' recovery from multiple knee surgeries was "," it raised some questions about the receiver's timetable and future forecast. In a league where it feels like 90 percent of rehabbing players seem to be "ahead of schedule," this injury update felt like a bad omen.

And I get that. I also get the feeling that the Giants' signings of Beckham, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Braxton Berrios were insurance moves guarding against potentially not having Nabers to start the season. That came after the Giants had already added veterans Darnell Mooney and Calvin Austin III and drafted Malachi Fields.

That feels like a lot of insurance, Giants fans might tell you.

Look, I can't assure you Nabers is going to be fine. New York's certainly a better team with a healthy Nabers, no doubt. But I think the G-Men can at least survive if he's not 100 percent to start the season, even if general manager Joe Schoen still believes Nabers will be available for Week 1.

The good news on Cam Skattebo's injury certainly helps, and the Giants have reconstructed the roster to be able to run the ball more often and more effectively. I believe that'll be a big part of their identity. Big enough that they can overcome Nabers not being at his best, if needed.

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