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The case for Chicago winning the division: Year 1 under Ben Johnson was a revelation off the shores of Lake Michigan. After a rocky 0-2 start, Johnson caught a groove after the early bye week, and the Bears romped to their first division title since 2018. Year 2 should bring out the best in Johnson, who now understands the roles a head coach must take on beyond the play-calling. The 40-year-old coach has had a year to shape the offense to his liking, portending greater results. Johnson’s offenses improved each season in Detroit. Following a similar blueprint, he has the pieces to unleash an explosive torrent.

Johnson’s success will hinge on Caleb Williams. The Madden NFL 27 cover athlete is an ascending talent who began to take off under his offensive-minded coach. Williams was sensational, particularly in big moments last season. The QB led comeback after comeback, never flinching in big spots. Williams’ ability to make the splash play both from the pocket and on the move frustrates defenses. Only MVP Matthew Stafford boasted more big-time throws than Williams, who always seemed to save his best for the crucible of the big moments. The next step for the third-year pro is becoming more precise down-to-down as a station-to-station passer. Last year, the offense did go through some lulls when the ground game was stymied, and Williams' accuracy went askew. If he cleans up those moments and continues to display otherworldly outside-the-structure ability, Williams will be in the MVP conversation and the Bears can recapture the division.

Beyond Williams, there is a lot to love about the Bears’ offense. Johnson’s run game continues to thrive. Rome Odunze, if he can stay healthy, provides big-play ability with true WR1 upside. Luther Burden III came on strong down the stretch and fits perfectly in what Johnson wants from a shifty route runner -- he profiles for a massive Year 2 leap. And Colston Loveland should vault his way into the upper echelon of receiving tight ends, with Johnson expected to get him even more involved with a developed route tree. Toss in one of the best offensive lines in the NFL -- even with questions at left tackle to open the season -- and Chicago’s offense should mash. Year over year, it’s easier to rely on good offenses to remain afloat than on a stalwart defense, which tends to fluctuate. The Bears' O gives them a legit shot to repeat.

The case against Chicago: While the offense should be exciting, there are still significant defensive concerns that could sink the ship. The Bears didn’t add a bookend pass rusher to play opposite Montez Sweat this offseason. Unless they ink one of the aging veterans closer to training camp, Chicago will be leaning heavily on Austin Booker to continue his ascent. Likewise, in the middle of the defensive line, Chicago added just rotational players to a front that was gashed on the ground. Can 33-year-old Grady Jarrett find the fountain of youth? If not, Bears fans will point to the lack of difference-making additions on the front line this offseason.

Additionally, the Bears' defense is replacing several key contributors in the secondary. Starting safeties Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker, as well as breakout corner Nahshon Wright, all exited in free agency. The corner crew has players to cover for Wright's absence, but if injuries continue to strike, a lack of depth is a concern. I loved the Dillon Thieneman selection in the draft, and he could immediately help fill the hole on the back end, but it’s asking a lot of a rookie safety to step in and keep forcing turnovers at the rate of the previous group. If the back end doesn’t continue to force turnovers at an insane clip, the D could flounder and could undercut the offense.

Then there is the issue of the close contests for cardiac kids. Of Chicago’s 11 victories, seven came via one-score tilts, including numerous late-game pull-the-rabbit-out-of-the-hat wins. Can they continue to live on the edge? A regression to the mean in a stocked division would make it hard to repeat.

The case for Detroit winning the division: The Lions took a significant step backward sans Ben Johnson in 2025, but the offensive core remains an explosive whirlwind when Jared Goff is properly protected. Yes, the play-calling was an issue for much of last season, but the biggest problem was an offensive line that blocked like a paper doll for large stretches. The move of Penei Sewell to left tackle, the drafting of first-rounder Blake Miller and the signing of Cade Mays should provide an upgrade. If young guards Tate Ratledge and Christian Mahogany make strides, the blocking should significantly improve.

When Goff has time and the running game has holes, oh, baby, these Lions can roar. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains an uncontainable weapon who can get open with ease. Jameson Williams is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and has provided more consistency to go along with the game-breaking speed. Isaac TeSlaa showed flashes with some ridiculous grabs and could be a dynamic No. 3 as he gets more snaps. If Sam LaPorta returns healthy, they have a mismatch tight end who can give Goff an outlet.

Then there is Jahmyr Gibbs, who is in line to see the bulk of the carries. After playing tandem with David Montgomery for the last three seasons, Gibbs is in line for a Christian McCaffrey-type workload. The explosive playmaker boasts game-breaking speed whenever he touches the pigskin and is a weapon as a receiver. Increasing his reps will make the Lions offense even more dangerous. If everything breaks right, Gibbs will be an Offensive Player of the Year candidate.

On defense, the Lions added second-rounder Derrick Moore on the edge. If he pairs with Aidan Hutchinson to provide consistent pressure, the Detroit defense can climb out of the doldrums. Give Dan Campbell a solid defense and better blocking on offense, and 2025’s dip will be a blip on the radar.

The Lions faced a first-place schedule a year ago and slipped amid O-line issues and defensive injuries. Falling to fourth in the NFC North gives Campbell’s crew the benefit of playing an easier schedule this time around. Detroit can feasibly sprint to the top of the division before closing with three road division games in the last four weeks of the season.

The case against Detroit: Injuries to Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph cloud the defensive operation. Branch’s late-season Achilles injury could keep him out . It’s not clear when (or if) Joseph’s knee . Those concerns, along with rollercoaster play from the corner crew, including former first-round pick Terrion Arnold, could lead to year-long issues in the secondary. While the Lions tossed more bodies at finding Hutchinson’s running mate -- from Moore to Payton Turner to DJ Wonnum -- none is a sure thing. The defense could once again be a feast-or-famine proposition in Detroit.

It’s one thing to believe the offensive line issues are fixed on paper, but we won’t truly know until the heat is fully provided. If the inexperienced middle collapses and the rookie right tackle struggles, the offense will be in the same fix as a year ago. Playmakers can’t make plays if the offensive line becomes a sieve.

Then there is the question of yet another new offensive coordinator. Drew Petzing is the fourth OC under Campbell in six seasons. Two -- Anthony Lynn and John Morton -- didn’t make it a full season before having play-calling duties stripped. Petzing has experience and is well regarded, but what if Campbell simply can’t find his next Ben Johnson?

The case for Green Bay winning the division: Matt LaFleur’s crew has made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons, including each of the last three. Locals might be frustrated with the recent lack of division titles and playoff success, but LaFleur continues to win.

Jordan Love has improved each year since he took over the starting reins, and last season he rid himself of some of the YOLO issues that had plagued him those first two campaigns. Given how long he’s been around, it’s easy to forget that Love enters only his fourth season as the starter. There’s still room to grow. Love’s command of the offense is sublime when things are clicking, and he’s grown into a legit distributor who can pick apart defenses when protected. If he stays healthy and continues the upward trajectory, the offense can carry the load.

The offseason contracts for Christian Watson and Jayden Reed underscore the Packers' belief that they have a receiver trio that can grow into a force together. Matthew Golden improved immensely down the stretch in his rookie season. If he makes the Year 2 WR leap, the passing game could be potent. If Tucker Kraft, who is returning from last year’s ACL tear, is back to his dominating self, the Packers' attack will be a menace. Add in an offensive line that is in better shape than it was when the season ended, and LaFleur has the pieces to get back to the top of the division. There are questions about veteran running back Josh Jacobs, though, given the investigation surrounding his recent arrest.

Micah Parsons will miss the start of the season, but when he returns, it will be the biggest boost of any in-season addition. Even if the D gets off to a wobbly start, it’s easy to envision Parsons’ eventual return completely rejuvenating the defense and making the Packers a dangerous opponent down the stretch. The start of Green Bay's schedule doesn’t look the stiffest, so if Parsons is back for the meat of the schedule -- potentially versus rival Chicago in Week 5 -- it will make a massive difference in the division race. 

Elsewhere on defense, the Javon Hargrave addition should fit Jonathan Gannon's scheme like a glove, helping cover a sore spot in the middle that plagued it a year ago. The crux of an improved defense under the new DC could be second-round cornerback Brandon Cisse. If he solves some of the corner concerns that have troubled Green Bay in recent years, it’s a defense that profiles better than others in the division.

The case against Green Bay: What if Love has plateaued? Love gets a bad rap, particularly when things go awry. He might never be that guy who stacks up MVPs and carries a club alone, but with the proper surroundings, he’s proven he can move the offense and win games. But if he takes a step backward or simply treads water, the entire operation could sink. The Packers need the QB to continue progressing in Year 4 as the starter. 

If Jacobs misses time due to injury or his off-field situation, the run game could go south. Jacobs is the engine of the Packers' offense, churning out yards as he gashes defenses. There are question marks behind the three-time Pro Bowler, with Chris Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd next in line. Brooks profiles as a third-down back and Lloyd hasn’t been healthy, playing in only one game since entering the league in 2024. LaFleur’s offense isn’t the same without a solid rushing attack.

The Packers replaced Jeff Hafley with Gannon, who has run only one top-10 defense in five years as a head coach or DC. A step backward from last season could prove costly in a contested division. Parsons' recovery hovers over everything on defense. He’s the dominant force that makes everything go. If his recovery is delayed, that could spell doom. There is also the possibility that he might not be his game-wrecking self upon his return. Given Lukas Van Ness’ struggles to be an every-down difference-maker and the questions about the rest of the rotation, Parsons playing at less than his supernatural powers could be devastating.

Oh, and let’s toss in that Green Bay is counting on a rookie kicker, sixth-round pick Trey Smack, in one of the most difficult settings to boot the ball. With some pivotal late-season home games on the schedule -- including dates with the Bills, Texans and Lions -- could the Packers' title hopes come down to a rookie kicking in bad weather?

The case for Minnesota winning the division: The Vikings' biggest issue last year came under center, where J.J. McCarthy struggled both with his health and consistency. Kyler Murray’s arrival provides an immediate upgrade. Kevin O’Connell insists he’s holding a true competition, but the newcomer appears to be ahead. If McCarthy legitimately beats out the former Pro Bowler, all the better for the Vikings long-term, but for this exercise, I’m viewing Murray as the man. At his best, Murray is a big play waiting to happen. He can splash explosive throws and add difference-making with his legs. O’Connell has proven he can take a talented QB and get the most out of him.

The biggest beneficiary of a more stable QB situation should be Justin Jefferson. The all-world receiver struggled through 2025, generating career lows with 1,048 yards, 12.5 yards per catch and two touchdowns. Players of his caliber rarely have back-to-back down seasons. Murray has a penchant for force-feeding his favorite target, and letting Jefferson eat is the best way for Minnesota to surge to the top of the division. In addition, Jordan Addison and the sneaky-good addition of third-down menace Jauan Jennings provide a potent threesome for whoever is under center.

The Vikings have two of the top play-callers in the entire NFL in O’Connell and DC Brian Flores. That alone provides a promise that they can compete with anyone. Flores’ group has been a problem for offenses, ransacking quarterbacks. After last year’s veteran additions didn’t pan out, the Vikings took swings at youth, particularly up front, in Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange. If Flores gets his young players to soar, they should once again have the best D in the division. 

The case against Minnesota: The disaster scenario for the Vikings is that neither Murray nor McCarthy plays well, leading to constant shuffling under center and instability throughout the club. That’s a recipe for a sunken ship.

While Murray -- again, assuming he wins the gig -- represents an upgrade, he’s also injury-prone and a freelancer. If things go sideways, last year’s issues could return. Murray has played a full season only once in the past five campaigns and hasn’t earned a winning record since 2021. Murray boasts talent, but can he excel in KOC’s timing scheme as Sam Darnold did? Furthermore, how might McCarthy respond by being leapfrogged if he’s thrust back into duty? Can Carson Wentz lead a winner if needed? The QB room is better than last year's, but still sits on a razor’s edge.

The middle of the offensive line might not portend a good time for Murray and the rest of the QBs. Blake Brandel opens as the starter at center after Ryan Kelly's retirement, with Michael Jurgens potentially in the mix should Brandel struggle. Donovan Jackson and Will Fries are both coming off down seasons. The Vikings desperately need Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill to stay healthy, or the O-line could have significant issues.  

The trade of Jonathan Greenard stung the Vikings, who now turn to youth to fill the voids on D. Minnesota needs Dallas Turner to turn it up a notch -- pun not intended. Turner is coming off an eight-sack season, but the Vikings need more from the first-rounder on an every-down basis. If he can’t fill Greenard’s shoes, the pass rush will take a step back. Minnesota is counting on Flores coaching up his youngsters up front and in the secondary, which comes with an element of unknown. If the youth stumbles, it could crumble the entire defense.