Parity is a blessing to NFL fans.
The ability of clubs to go from downtrodden to celebrated in the blink of an eye gives every fan base summer hope. Sure, some of that will run out before Thanksgiving, but even a glimmer of optimism is better than complete darkness.
Not only do most teams have hopes of reaching the playoffs, but the regularity with which NFL franchises go from the bottom of the division to the top in a single year fertilizes positive thinking. This worst-to-first phenomenon has been a staple of the league since divisional realignment back in 2002. In 20 of the past 23 seasons, at least one team has gone from worst to first in its division, including two in 2025 -- the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots. The 2017 Philadelphia Eagles and 2009 New Orleans Saints went from division losers to Super Bowl champs in a single season.
Hope springs eternal -- or so they say -- and it certainly geysers from June to September.
With the bulk of offseason roster building complete and NFL training camps set to kick off in late July, it's a good time to rank the worst-to-first candidates in 2026, starting with the most likely.
The NFC South is a jumbled hodgepodge, with all four squads finishing last season below .500. Each has significant room to grow and lingering questions. Given how the Saints developed in Kellen Moore’s first season and made improvements this offseason -- with New Orleans finally getting out of salary-cap hell -- there is a runway to the top of the division.
Whether or not you’re a Tyler Shough believer -- I happen to be -- his improved play down the stretch under Moore was undeniable. Despite playing with the likes of Dante Pettis, Mason Tipton and Kevin Austin Jr. as weapons in the latter stretches of the season, Shough proved he could move the ball. The quarterback has the arm to make all the throws, the headiness to learn from mistakes and the athleticism to create when things break down. He has room to grow significantly, but under Moore, consistent heights are within reach. Now, his surroundings are much improved. A healthy Chris Olave and No. 8 overall pick Jordyn Tyson provide talent on the outside. Free-agent addition Travis Etienne fits perfectly in Moore’s scheme and should lead New Orleans to more explosive rushing plays. Alvin Kamara sticking around is a bonus. And the offensive line was upgraded with the signing of David Edwards. The offense should take a massive step forward in 2026.
The defense has some questions but was underrated last year. Brandon Staley might have flopped as a head coach, but the man can run a D that confuses offenses. The return of Kaden Elliss should help fill Demario Davis’ shoes. The Saints need Chase Young to remain a force off the edge and Cameron Jordan to finish up his stellar career with a “final season” flourish. Otherwise, there could be some concerns with the pass rush.
Sinking to last place in the NFC North provided the Lions with a significantly easier schedule than the one that bludgeoned them last season, as they fell from division darlings back to the cellar.
Detroit appears to have shored up its biggest offensive weakness, revamping the offensive line. If Penei Sewell’s transition to left tackle goes smoothly, Blake Miller steps in at right tackle and plays to his first-round billing, Cade Mays solidifies the pivot and the young guards (Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge) improve, the Lions' offense will get back to its explosive ways.
Jared Goff is a proven distributor when he has time. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa provide playmaking targets. Sam LaPorta, when healthy, is a mismatch weapon at tight end. The player who could put the Lions over the top is Jahmyr Gibbs, who profiles to play a Christian McCaffrey-type role following the David Montgomery trade. Giving the dynamic running back more touches on the ground and through the air will make Detroit's attack even more dangerous.
A lot is riding on the offensive line, but Detroit should boast one of the league's best offenses -- if not the best -- if everything falls into place.
Significant questions remain on defense, where the back end -- due to injuries to Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, and Terrion Arnold’s following a recent arrest -- is an uncertain amalgam. Furthermore, we still don’t know if the Lions have enough pass rush alongside Aidan Hutchinson or whether Alim McNeill will finally get back to full force. If the defense can muscle its way into the top half of the league, the Lions can retake the NFC North after tumbling from the mountaintop in 2025.
John Harbaugh’s arrival has brought optimism to the Giants that they lacked in the past several seasons. The longtime head coach knows how to coax the best out of his crew and will be a stabilizing force for the club.
The defense has legit playmakers up front. Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux can discombobulate quarterbacks. The loss of Dexter Lawrence hurts, but the addition of chess piece Arvell Reese provides Big Blue with a roving force in the middle. There are some questions on the back end, but if the front plays to its dominant potential in Dennard Wilson’s scheme, it will be a much-improved unit.
Jaxson Dart flashed high upside as a rookie and owns the potential for a Year 2 leap -- if he can avoid big hits. When Dart was in a groove, he provided playmaking and escapability. Staying on the field will be key. Ditto for bulldozer Cam Skattebo. The offensive line, with first-rounder Francis Mauigoa filling in at guard, should be a strength if Andrew Thomas can stay healthy.
The big question is the health of Malik Nabers, who is working his way back from last season’s ACL tear. If Nabers misses significant time, New York lacks a field-tilting passing-game threat.
The NFC East will be hotly contested, with the Eagles remaining a steady force and the Cowboys and Commanders each shoring up weaknesses this offseason. However, Harbaugh’s arrival brings belief that the Giants can swiftly turn things around.
The arrival of coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll brings legitimacy to a Titans squad that has lived in the AFC South cellar for the past three seasons.
Tennessee spent the offseason acquiring veterans familiar with the coaching staff, from DL John Franklin-Myers and DE Jermaine Johnson II on defense to WR Wan’Dale Robinson and C Austin Schlottmann on offense. The familiarity, particularly on defense, should help the Titans immediately improve. We know Saleh can coach defense. His scheme and the personnel are obvious upgrades for a unit that ranked 28th in points allowed last year. With star DT Jeffery Simmons still dominating, the Titans could be the most improved D in the NFL.
The key to Tennessee finally finding success will be Cam Ward. The quarterback showed flashes as a rookie last season, but was wholly inconsistent. Robinson and first-round pick Carnell Tate should provide significantly better weaponry than Ward was given in Year 1. Daboll has proved he can develop young quarterbacks. If Ward makes a leap in 2026, the Titans have a shot to compete with their division rivals.
New York’s roster is undeniably improved from last season.
Geno Smith is a clear upgrade at quarterback, even if he’s coming off a down season at age 35. I’d expect a much more coherent offense than whatever it was that the Jets put on the field a year ago. Garrett Wilson is a legit stud and should see a trove of targets. Breece Hall is a big play waiting to happen out of the backfield. And the offensive line, if it stays healthy, is solid and still growing. With first-round pick Kenyon Sadiq and second-year pro Mason Taylor at tight end, the Jets can be versatile in their personnel usage. On paper, this is a much more explosive offense -- if Smith can avoid turnovers.
The defense, likewise, was completely overhauled with veterans like Demario Davis, Minkah Fitzpatrick and David Onyemata bringing legitimacy to the unit. The trade for T’Vondre Sweat could be a massive coup for Gang Green. And No. 2 overall pick David Bailey provides athleticism as a pass rusher.
Aaron Glenn’s team won’t be the pushover it was a year ago. However, I still put the Jets behind the Patriots and Bills in the division at this stage.
The Raiders have legit hope that climbing out of the gutter isn’t far off on the horizon.
Fernando Mendoza’s arrival brings promise that Vegas finally has an answer under center. If he’s not ready to start off the bat, Kirk Cousins is an ideal bridge for Klint Kubiak’s offense. With TE Brock Bowers and RB Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders have two pieces that can soar in Kubiak’s scheme. However, questions remain at receiver -- and despite the addition of star center Tyler Linderbaum, the offensive line needs to prove it’s much improved from last year.
The defense added several veterans who immediately upgraded a woebegone unit. And with the Maxx Crosby trade ultimately falling apart, Vegas still has a true difference-maker off the edge. The secondary is an interesting concoction of veterans who have had up-and-down careers and rookies who could contribute right away.
I really like the foundation that has been laid in Vegas, and I believe Kubiak is a bona fide head coach who can put players in position to succeed. Yet, the roster remains thin at this stage of the rebuild -- there was a reason the team initially agreed to trade Crosby for two first-rounders. Playing in a tough division does the Raiders no favors. They feel a year away from making a legit run.
The Browns told us what they thought of their shot at climbing up the division ladder in 2026 by shipping Myles Garrett across the country. Jared Verse, acquired in the Garrett trade, is an excellent young player who continues to ascend. Right now, he’s no Garrett. The defense still has the potential to be good, with Verse and Mason Graham making a formidable pairing that can control the line. Reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger is a menace in the middle, and if the back end can stay healthy, it’s a unit that can keep games low-scoring.
The additions of KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston immediately boost the pass-catching corps, and Quinshon Judkins has the potential for a massive season as the focal point of the offense . However, the uncertainty under center caps the Browns' upside. Whether Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders wins the starting battle, both come with massive question marks. Watson has been rough in the brief times he’s been able to get on the field in Cleveland. Sanders showed flashes as a rookie but was far too inconsistent.
There are intriguing young pieces on the Browns’ roster, but until they find the unquestioned franchise quarterback, they’ll continue to struggle to get out of the basement.
Head coach Mike LaFleur brings an intriguing offense to Arizona, and the addition of third overall pick Jeremiyah Love provides explosive upside. Trey McBride is coming off an All-Pro season. If Marvin Harrison Jr. can finally play to his potential, the pairing with Michael Wilson offers intrigue. Jacoby Brissett, if he gets his contract situation sorted out, has proven he can move the offense. At this point, however, the Cards lack a franchise QB who can put them over the top. Perhaps rookie third-rounder Carson Beck gets a shot, but I don’t expect it to come until later in the season.
The defense also has pieces -- Budda Baker, Josh Sweat, etc. -- and could improve if the unit can stay healthy. However, the roster lacks depth to compete with the upper echelon of the division. Arizona is buried on this list not just because it remains in rebuild mode with a new coach, but because it plays in the loaded NFC West. The Seahawks, Rams and 49ers all have rosters built to compete for a Super Bowl right now, with Seattle having just hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in February. That’s as tough a division slate as any team will face. The 2026 season is about finding building blocks in the desert.
