Last offseason, Daniel Jones signed a one-year, $14 million deal with the Indianapolis Colts, and it appeared his career was heading in one of two directions prior to the 2025 NFL season.
Had Jones lost the QB battle vs. Anthony Richardson, it's possible he would have been looking for the best backup deal available this offseason, likely at a good bit less than his 2025 salary. But Jones won the competition and thrived for the first chunk of last season, leading the Colts to an 8-2 start. Consequently, even though he suffered a season-ending Achilles tear in December, Jones ultimately signed a two-year, $88 million deal with $60 million guaranteed.
Jones was a true make-or-break player in 2025. He was among those who had the most to lose but also the most to potentially gain.
Several guys fit those criteria again this year. In my estimation, here are the nine players who face the widest range of potential outcomes heading into the 2026 campaign.
The Vikings were able to land Murray for a pittance because of all the dead money on his Arizona contract, signing him to a one-year deal for the league minimum. What makes the pact most fascinating is the fact that Murray can't be franchise tagged after this season. Thus, if Murray is a hit with the Vikes and revives his career, he will be a free agent in 2027 -- with nothing preventing him from landing a multi-year deal, either in Minnesota or elsewhere. He still must beat out J.J. McCarthy, a former top-10 pick whom the Vikings traded up for and aren't ready to move on from.
Murray's career has gone sideways since his ACL tear late in the 2022 season, even if it's a stretch to say he's played poorly. The former No. 1 overall pick just hasn't re-ascended to the heights he reached prior to that, when it appeared he was developing into one of the league's more intriguing young playmakers at the position.
Murray's turning 29 in August and clearly has a great opportunity in Minnesota: throwing to one of the best receivers in the game in Justin Jefferson and playing for a sharp offensive mind in Kevin O'Connell. Even with McCarthy there, Murray should have every chance to take the job, run with it and -- eventually -- cash in again.
This slot could just as easily be filled by Michael Penix Jr., whose football journey has been waylaid by another ACL tear, but it just feels like Tagovailoa will get the first -- and possibly best -- chance to turn his career back in the right direction. Like Kyler Murray, Tua signed a one-year deal for the league minimum, with the Falcons taking advantage of the offset language in his Dolphins deal.
At 28, Tagovailoa still is relatively young, but he's had a long, troublesome injury history that includes a fractured hip and several concussions. He also has no experience with new head coach Kevin Stefanski and must beat out the incumbent Penix in this fascinating, all-lefty battle. Again, though, Penix is currently working his way back to full health after undergoing major knee surgery in November.
In a perfect world for Tua, he's a strong fit as a rhythm-and-timing quarterback in Stefanski's wide-zone, play-action-heavy system. Atlanta has a potent run game, a true WR1 in Drake London, an excellent middle-field option in Kyle Pitts and the makings of a solid offensive line.
There's no doubt Tagovailoa is at a career crossroads, and his history could work against him, but worse quarterbacks have overcome more to find second lives in the NFL. He still has a great shot to cash in with a strong 2026 campaign.
Rice has put himself in a bad situation by continually making poor decisions. He's entering the final year of his rookie contract, and the Chiefs don't yet know if they can trust him. That's a very discouraging sign for such a talented player.
Since about midway through his rookie season, Rice has played like a No. 1 receiver. The problem has been the lack of playing. He's been set back by injuries and, more concerningly, by a suspension. His recent drug-test failure was as much of a maturity test that Rice failed, compounding his issues.
Even as another possible suspension looms, with a threat of lost millions, this still represents the ultimate opportunity for Rice to rewrite his story. This coming season carries even more weight with the Chiefs coming off their first losing campaign in more than a decade and Patrick Mahomes working his way back from an ACL injury. A trustworthy Rice would fix a lot of Kansas City's problems.
The character questions surrounding Rice wouldn't vanish with a strong campaign, but that -- along with some accountability -- surely would help his chances of earning a long-term deal befitting of his immense talent. The way wide receiver contracts have blown up, that could mean a salary averaging north of $30 million. Or it could be a story of missed opportunity for Rice if he runs afoul again this season. The future is in his hands.
The Packers extended Jayden Reed during draft weekend and are leaving the door open for Watson to earn a long-term contract in Green Bay after he signed a one-year, $11 million extension last September. Many view Watson as Jordan Love's No. 1 target, especially with tight end Tucker Kraft working his way back from a torn ACL, but can the Pack fully trust the talented wideout?
Since entering the NFL as a second-round pick in 2022, Watson has played in just 48 of a possible 68 regular-season games and has never made it through a full campaign without missing multiple games. His largest body of work (15 starts in the 2024 season) provided his most uneven production (29 catches, 620 yards, two TDs). He was arguably at his best for the Packers down the stretch of this past season, but the lack of reliability has been maddening at times.
Even with Reed, Kraft and Matthew Golden in place, and Love operating an everyone-shall-eat passing game, there's an opportunity for Watson to prove his value. He can start with an injury-free season. Skill sets like Watson's are unusual, and playing 17 games (or close) could open the vault next spring in free agency.
Taken seventh overall by the Titans in the 2024 NFL Draft, Latham has not played to a level commensurate with a top-10 pick to this point, allowing 15 sacks (per PFF) and committing 24 penalties in 30 career starts. But he has been shuttled between left and right tackle and still has shown enough promise to suggest he could break out -- perhaps as soon as this season.
The Titans badly need better protection for QB Cam Ward, the NFL's most-sacked quarterback in 2025. There's hope that some of Latham's issues last season can be blamed on a preseason hip injury that he aggravated in Week 1, leading to four games missed. When he came back, Latham may not have been fully healthy.
New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll had success turning Andrew Thomas' career around with a breakout season in Daboll's first year with the Giants in 2022, and he could have a similar effect on Latham in Tennessee. Latham's lateral quickness remains a question, and he might not make quite as much money as a right tackle than he would as a left tackle, but the opportunity remains a strong one for the 340-pound mauler.
The Jets exercised the fifth-year option for 2027 on McDonald, giving him more runway to earn an eventual extension with the team, but that doesn’t downplay the importance of this season for him. He has yet to show that he’s earned a top salary at a position where elite players are making north of $25 million per year.
McDonald has 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons, but the Jets have treated him more like a designated pass rusher, giving him about two-thirds of the defensive snaps in this span. He also finished 2025 on injured reserve with a knee injury, sending him into 2026 with plenty yet to prove.
This offseason, the Jets signed Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare in free agency and drafted David Bailey No. 2 overall. This should be a strong rush unit, and the defense appears improved overall on paper. This is the perfect environment for the former top-15 pick to thrive, although displaying more of an all-around game might be the key to landing him in the top tier of salaries.
It's hard to believe this will be Thibodeaux’s fifth NFL season. It’s equally surprising that he’s still only 25 years old.
Thibodeaux is the ultimate enigma at this stage of his career, with a strong first two seasons to his name but also a disappointing past two seasons (and a season-ending shoulder injury in 2025) that mar his forecast. Will the former No. 5 overall pick be a star or a bust? Either eventual result wouldn’t be shocking.
This just feels like a flashpoint season for Thibodeaux, who is playing on the fifth-year tender, with a new coaching staff running the Giants and with more defensive firepower alongside him. The Giants drafted Arvell Reese and will play him inside as a linebacker, which buys Thibodeaux some time to prove himself as an edge rusher. That said, he’s still likely third in the pass-rush pecking order behind Brian Burns and Abdul Carter.
Thibodeaux’s name has been floated in trade rumors, but it appears the Giants will see what he can do in 2026. A breakout season could lead to a massive payout. Another season in the wrong direction would leave his options far murkier, even with all of Thibodeaux’s raw ability.
Woolen saw his role decrease around midseason last year for the Seahawks, and his name bubbled up in trade rumors at one point. He ended up sticking with the team and playing more snaps in the postseason run to the Lombardi Trophy. Still, Seattle allowed him to walk in free agency, where he signed a one-year, prove-it deal with the Eagles.
This feels like the ultimate tipping-point season for the 27-year-old Woolen, who entered the league as an intriguing fifth-rounder and vastly outplayed his draft status early -- but who also more recently has plateaued, allowing his emotions to boil over at times. There’s a strong opportunity to parlay this coming season into a 2027 payday if Woolen performs well.
In Philadelphia, there’s a starting job with Woolen’s name on it. And if he can cut down on the penalties and untimely mistakes on what looks like a strong defense, Woolen could be looking at a $20 million-per-year contract in free agency next spring. If not? Woolen could be the next Trevon Diggs, waiting for another shot.
When Holland signed with the Giants last offseason, it was viewed as a semi-steal, with Big Blue landing an established, 25-year-old safety with upside at a salary below the top five at the position. A year later, Holland is viewed differently, seemingly in limbo following a rough first season in New York and with a new head coach in town.
That said, John Harbaugh has a higher appreciation for safeties than some other coaches, and he surely wields considerable personnel power. Harbaugh previously oversaw Kyle Hamilton, Eric Weddle, Ed Reed and other safeties earning top-of-the-market salaries, so a bounce-back season from Holland could change his career arc significantly.
The Giants have some strong defensive talent up front, but the secondary must step up -- and specifically Holland. If the player who had five INTs, four forced fumbles, four recoveries and four sacks in his first three seasons reemerges, Holland could land another big payday. If not, he could be in danger of being cut, with a cap hit of in 2027.
